Seoul, Washington must jointly prepare for N. Korea`s collapse: scholar

By Shin Hae-in
SEOUL, Nov. 7 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and the incoming U.S. government must cooperate closely on North Korea's denuclearization process and work together to draw up a contingency plan in the event of the communist regime's collapse, a prominent U.S. scholar said Friday.

Prof. Victor Cha of Georgetown University made the remarks amid calls for South
Korea's conservative administration to change its hardline policy toward
Pyongyang following Democrat Barack Obama's win in the U.S. presidential election
Wednesday.
Experts anticipate that the liberal Obama government will engage in more active
dialogue with the Stalinist North in persuading it to fully give up its nuclear
ambitions. That policy could potentially alienate Seoul as the inter-Korean
relations remain tense.
Reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il may be in poor health -- which
Pyongyang has vehemently denied and attempted to disprove by releasing photos of
Kim -- are adding to uncertainty.
"The upshot for the U.S.-South Korea alliance is the need to begin quiet but
serious discussions about how to prepare for sudden change in North Korea," Prof.
Cha told a parliamentary forum in Seoul. "Kim Jong-il is not well. It is fairly
clear that the 66-year-old dictator's well-being has reached a tipping point."
Cha served in the George W. Bush administration as director for Asian affairs on
the National Security Council.
"During the Roh Moo-hyun government, coordination between the two allies on these
concept plans (concerning North Korean regime's collapse) was stopped by Seoul
over concerns they could be interpreted by the North as an intention to collapse
the regime," he added. "Such planning needs to be restarted in earnest and in
depth."
Cha predicted little change in efforts by Seoul and Washington to denuclearize
North Korea "as long as the next American president pursues diplomacy through the
six-party talks."
North Korea has been proceeding with nuclear disarmament under an
aid-for-denuclearization deal struck last year with South Korea, the United
States, Japan, China and Russia.
"The capacity for Washington and Seoul to stay on the same page regarding North
Korea will depend on their relative patience in managing the dilemma of
Pyongyang's unreasonableness," he added, stressing Seoul must make balanced
judgments regarding relationships with Pyongyang and Washington.
Cha predicted the Korea-U.S. alliance will remain strong under Washington's new
government.
"The U.S.-Korea alliance remains one of the most underrated alliances in the
history of international relations today," he said. "My bottom line is that the
alliance will, true to form, outperform the expectations held of it, and holds
the potential to be one of America's most enduring relationships in Asia."
hayney@yna.co.kr
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