N. Korean leader empowers army confidants ahead of power succession, nuclear

By Sam Kim
SEOUL, Feb. 12 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-il appears to be
expanding his country's military options and paving the way for power succession
by promoting a loyal commander and his point man on nuclear weapons development,
defense officials and experts said Thursday.
They also said the reshuffle, declared through the state media, is aimed at
showing the world that Kim is in full control of his 1.2-million-strong --
possibly nuclear-armed -- military after a reported stroke last summer.
North Korea announced Wednesday that Kim Yong-chun, a ranking member of the
National Defense Commission that controls the troops, was appointed as the
communist state's defense minister.
Kim, 73, who led the North's joint chiefs of staff for nearly a decade until
2007, has been a key player in the country's nuclear weapons development, experts
and defense ministry officials said.
Considered a hardliner who increased public appearances when relations between
the Koreas turned tense, Kim has been rumored to openly back Kim Jong-il's second
and third sons as successors.
"He understands his country's nuclear weapons from A to Z because he has long
been in positions that required him to know how to incorporate those options in
armed operations," Baek Seung-joo, chief analyst at the state-run Korea Institute
for Defense Analyses, said.
North Korea conducted its first known atomic test in 2006. Despite a 2007 deal
that promised a raft of economic and diplomatic benefits for its
denuclearization, the North is refusing to accept a U.S. proposal aimed at
inspecting its past nuclear programs.
The country retains a massive army despite a moribund economy, and is seen as
preparing to test-fire a long-range missile in an effort to up the ante in its
negotiations with the outside world.
North Korea also announced that General Ri Yong-ho, who had been in charge of the
defense of Pyongyang, has taken over as chairman of the country's joint chiefs of
staff.
South Korean officials and analysts generally declined to comment on the man
believed to be in his early 60s because little information is available on him
from the isolated state.
Yang Moon-soo, an analyst at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul,
said Ri could be Kim Jong-il's "insurance" against scenarios in which talks may
falter with the new U.S. administration.
"The job of capital defense requires an outstanding grasp of tactical operations
and abilities," Yang said. "Ri seems to have proved himself to Kim that he could
well lead the armed forces if things go wrong with the U.S. and more
saber-rattling is needed."
Yang added Ri's promotion could also be related to North Korea's increasing
threats of an armed clash near the inter-Korean Yellow Sea border that Pyongyang
has declared void.
Pyongyang said last month it was scrapping a non-aggression pact and other
political deals with Seoul, accusing South Korean President Lee Myung-bak of
pushing the peninsula to the "brink of war."
Baek cited internal politics to explain the appointment of Ri, whose meteoric
rise up through the ranks over the past several years has been little less than
remarkable.
Ri's presence among more than a thousand generals began to grow strong in 2006
when Kim's brother-in-law, Jang Song-thaek, re-emerged as a power elite, Baek
said, adding it is "no coincidence."
Jang, 63, who married Kim's younger sister, was once reportedly purged, but
stepped back into the North Korean political scene by accompanying the leader on
his official visit to China that year.
He was even rumored to be a stand-in when Kim, who turns 67 next week, reportedly
suffered a stroke last year. Baek said Ri could be Jang's pick as the leadership
readies to engineer a power succession.
A South Korean official, who declined to be identified, said Ri is also a
reasonable choice for Kim because he is rumored to have been a member of a group
that helped Kim consolidate power after his father and North Korean founder, Kim
Il-sung, died in 1994.
"If the rumor is true, Kim could depend on Ri again when he decides to transfer
his power to one of his sons," the official said, noting Kim decided to appoint
Ri even though his predecessor, Kim Kyok-sik, had served a little less than two
years in the post.
South and North Korea remain in a technical state of war after the 1950-53 Korean
War ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty.
samkim@yna.co.kr
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