(LEAD) (News Focus) Clinton touches on North Korean succession at sensitive time

SEOUL, Feb. 20 (Yonhap) -- U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton went further than other U.S. officials Friday in touching on a possible succession situation in North Korea, saying the sensitive topic is "something you have to think about."

The top U.S. diplomat affirmed that current leader Kim Jong-il is Washington's
negotiation partner. But while Clinton appeared to be speaking in an impromptu
fashion -- as opposed to giving an official message -- the fact that she openly
talked about uncertainty in North Korea and linked it to the North's alleged
missile preparations came as a rare signal that Washington is sensing signs of a
possible succession in Pyongyang and contemplating how to deal with it.
Clinton "was acknowledging that Kim Jong-il's health problems create uncertainty
over leadership transition due to the opaqueness of North Korea and that no
formal succession plan has been announced," Bruce Klinger, a North Korea
specialist with the Heritage Foundation, said. "That said, her comments seem to
go further than other U.S. officials in expressing concern over the potential for
a failed succession."
Answering reporters during her flight to Seoul from Jakarta on Thursday night,
Clinton said if there is a succession in the North, "that creates more
uncertainty" and "the whole leadership situation is somewhat unclear."
In a press conference Friday with her Seoul counterpart, Yu Myung-hwan, Clinton
repeated her view. "When you are thinking about the future dealings with a
government that doens't have any clear succession -- they don't have a vice
president, they don't have a prime minister -- it's something you have to think
about," she said.
What might happen after Kim's rule has drawn keen attention, as all powers are
now concentrated on him. Some U.S. experts have floated views that North Korea
will toughen up under a new leadership to consolidate its power. Others expressed
worries about a possible failed transition, in which the Pyongyang government may
lose its control of its alleged nuclear weapons.
Speculation deepened after the leader reportedly suffered a stroke in August.
Even though Washington has not openly talked about a North Korean succession,
Klinger said, it has been preparing for various scenarios that could happen in
North Korea -- from delays in nuclear negotiations to a regime collapse and an
implosion that may draw South Korean and Chinese militaries into North Korea.
Preparations in South Korea were invigorated after conservative President Lee
Myung-bak took office a year ago, he said.
"U.S. policy options are limited to contingency planning," he said, "U.S.-South
Korean contingency planning withered under President Roh Moo-hyun, but have been
resumed under Lee Myung-bak's administration."
The Seoul government denies a transition process is imminent, but different signs
abound. North Korea holds parliamentary elections next month, which some analysts
say will lay the groundwork for the post-Kim era. The leader has also been
promoting his closest aides to the military leadership, including O Kuk-ryol, who
helped Kim during his own succession process in the 1980s.
North Korean state-run media have recently emphasized the themes of "bloodline"
and "inheritance." Sources told Yonhap last month that Kim named his third and
youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor.
Richard Bush, director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies in the
Brookings Institution, said a succession process may now be in the works.
"It seems that decisions are being made to prepare the transition," he said.
A new North Korean leadership will likely adopt an even tougher stance than Kim,
Bush said, "because the new North Korean leadership may feel very insecure" and
"proposing moderate initiatives may not be 'politically correct.'"
With the succession talk considered taboo in North Korea, analysts were
discordant about how Pyongyang will respond to Clinton's remarks.
Paik Hak-soon, a senior research fellow with the independent Sejong Institute,
said it was "inappropriate" for the U.S. top diplomat to comment on another
nation's leadership. But it seemed to be an impromptu speech, not an intended
message aimed at avoiding direct negotiations with Kim Jong-il, he said.
"If that was a calculated comment, it could signal that the U.S. will wait until
the North Korean succession process is fully done, which will be inappropriate
and unpleasing to North Korea," Paik said. "But that does not fit the context of
(U.S. President) Barack Obama's engagement policy. Clinton, who was formerly a
politician and not a career diplomat, seems to have said it, not really thinking
how it may influence North Korea."
Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korea studies professor at Dongguk University, said North
Korea would brush off Clinton's remarks. Succession cannot be a public topic in
the communist country, he said, cautioning against categorizing North Korea as
belligerent.
"I don't think North Korea will sensitively respond to it. For anyone even to
talk about succession is considered irreverent in North Korea," Koh said.
hkim@yna.co.kr
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