NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 44 (March 5, 2009)

*** OPINION FROM EXPERTS

North Korea Should Immediately Halt Long-range Missile Launch

By Yoo Ho-yeol (Professor at Korea University in Seoul, Korea)

The world took notice when satellite images came in revealing that North Korea
had loaded what appeared to be a Taepodong-2 missile onto a truck at a munitions
factory near Pyongyang in early February. Notwithstanding warnings from Seoul and
Washington of strict international sanctions, the North proceeded with
preparations for what many believe will be its third launch of a ballistic
missile since earlier launches in 1999 and 2006.
For the sake of demonstrating its stake as a responsible member of the
international community, Pyongyang must immediately halt all activity related to
the launch. Failing to do so will surely damage any hope North Korea has of
achieving the goals it pursues, the foremost of which is gaining leverage in
future dialogue with the new U.S. administration under Barack Obama.
Pyongyang is also hoping to cement internal stability through the launch ahead of
upcoming rubber-stamp parliamentary elections scheduled for March 8 amid rumors
of succession following leader Kim Jong-il's reported health problems. Finally,
the North intends to use the launch to escalate tensions along the inter-Korean
border in order to isolate Seoul from international talks on Pyongyang's nuclear
program.
According to the North's Korean Committee of Space Technology (KCST), the launch
preparations are in fact for what the North calls the Kwangmyongsong-2 satellite,
which it says it hopes to send into orbit via the Unha-2 delivery rocket. The
aim, according to the KCST, is to demonstrate the scientific and technological
achievements of the Kim Jong-il regime.
Pyongyang's leaders must be content, as their multi-pronged strategy seems to be
bearing fruit, at least on the U.S. side. The Obama government sent Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton on an unprecedented tour of East Asia, her first official
overseas trip in the post and the first time in decades that a secretary of state
has made Asia their first stop abroad. Immediately after came the appointment of
Stephen Bosworth as Washington's special representative for North Korea. In the
South, growing criticism of President Lee Myung-bak's hardline policy against the
North may serve to embolden Pyongyang further.
North Korea's hopes are misplaced, however, as Washington has reaffirmed its
commitment to the six-party framework on the full verification and eventual
abolition of the North's nuclear program. The Obama government has also come out
strongly against any planned launch by Pyongyang, condemning the move as a threat
to the peace and stability of the region and warning that such action will
inevitably lead to harsh sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council on the
Kim Jong-il regime. China and Japan have echoed similar views and have emphasized
the need to restart the six-party talks.
Seoul, meanwhile, has maintained a "calm," if resolute, attitude with regards to
Pyongyang's increasingly hostile behavior. Even groups ordinarily critical of the
government have joined in condemning the North's missile preparations, with the
view that a nuclear armed North with the capability to deliver such weapons is
unacceptable.
Not withstanding the homogeneity of opinion that appears to be apparent within
North Korea, given its vociferous propaganda machine, discontent within the
broader populace must be burgeoning given the chronic lack of food. Considering
the enormous cost of sending a satellite into orbit -- if that is in fact what
the North is planning -- there are certain to be those, even among the elite, who
question the rationale behind such a project given circumstances on the ground.
Some may wonder whether such an undertaking is worth the stated goal of
proclaiming Kim Jong-il's achievements while paving the way for a smooth
succession.
North Korea's leadership must not underestimate the ramifications of sanctions
put in place by the international community. If it believes that it escaped
unscathed from the sanctions put upon it following its 2006 missile launch, it is
in grave danger of overlooking the dramatic changes that have occurred with time.
Unlike the early years of the Chollima Movemment of the postwar late 1950s,
modeled after a similar movement in China and named for a mythic winged horse in
Korean Legend, today's populace is far more informed about the world beyond their
borders. Pyongyang cannot afford to ignore the growing discontent that is taking
hold among its people.
In this day and age, a missile launch by North Korea will not succeed in
restarting the clock of history frozen by international sanctions and by the
isolation imposed on the country. In light of this, Pyongyang's top leader must
immediately scrap plans for what is bound to be an utterly destructive launch.
(END)