U.S. unlikely to intercept N. Korean satellite due to tech, politics: expert

By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, March 12 (Yonhap) -- The United States will not likely attempt to
intercept a North Korean rocket, believed to be fired early next month, despite
its veiled warnings to do that, due to technological shortfalls and political
ramifications, a U.S. expert said Thursday.
"The U.S. will certainly not attempt to shoot down the missile or satellite as
our ability to actually hit the DPRK missile is very low," said Art Brown, head
of the Washington-based consulting firm Midsight. DPRK is the official name of
North Korea, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
The remarks appear to conflict with U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and other
senior officials who have expressed confidence that the U.S. has the capability
to intercept any missiles approaching from the North.
Army Lt. Gen. Patrick O'Reilly, director of the Missile Defense Agency of the
U.S. Department of Defense, said last week that the U.S. has successfully
practiced intercepting missiles flying from North Korea three times.
Gates also hinted last month that the U.S. might intercept a Taepodong-2
ballistic missile should one approach American territory, saying, "My colleagues,
the secretary of state, national security adviser, president and vice president,
understand what our capabilities are."
Brown, former chief of the Asian Division for the Central Intelligence Agency,
however, said that the U.S. has "never conducted a realistic test of the
Ballistic Missile Defense system against an unknown target."
"All tests to date have been with complete advance knowledge of the target's
course, timing, and characteristics," he said. "Even then, the results have been
very poor sometimes. My personal opinion is that, if we tried, the chance of
missing is very high. This would be a very embarrassing event."
Brown also took note of the political and military ramifications of any attempt
by the U.S. to shoot down a North Korean satellite. Pyongyang has notified the
International Maritime Organization and the International Civil Aviation
Organization of an impending launch April 4-8 to ensure the safety of vessels and
flights approaching the rocket route and falling boosters.
"Shooting down a satellite is an act of war and the U.S. is very keen to prevent
the Chinese from ever thinking of interfering with a U.S. satellite," Brown said,
noting "The American military relies very heavily on satellites."
North Korea has said it has the right to launch a communications satellite as
part of its space development program, warning any interception of a booster to
put a communications satellite into orbit would trigger war.
The U.S. has also been wary of China's possible intervention in U.S. military as
well as communications satellites operating in the space since China successfully
shoot down one of its obsolete satellites last year in an apparent effort to show
off its space war capability.
Against the backdrop of all these, the Pentagon appeared Wednesday to back down
from its earlier warnings of a possible shooting down of a North Korean rocket.
Geoff Morrell, Pentagon spokesman, would not discuss "intelligence or operations
matters" involving any U.S. intention to intercept, just saying "I wouldn't get
into what, if any, preparations we make to deal with that possibility."
Morrell's position followed remarks by National Intelligence Director Dennis
Blair made to Senate Armed Services Committee hearing a day earlier that he
believed North Koreans "were going to do a space launch" in the first
acknowldgement of the North Korean claim by any U.S. officials since the North
threatned to launch a rocket last month.
U.S. officials and experts have said North Korea's claim is a cover for launching
a ballistic missile capable of reaching the mainland U.S.
Brown said that any successful launch of a North Korean rocket to orbit a
satellite will bring
about "a growing sense of urgency" due to "concerns for the first time that North
Korean missiles could possibly hit the U.S."
The technology for space and ballistic missile launch is indistinguishable as
both use the rocket boosters that penetrate the atmosphere and then move into
space.
The urgency will lead to the U.S. engaging North Korea bilaterally to "offer the
DPRK a bigger deal," Brown said.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Wednesday proposed to hold talks with
North Korea to address U.S. concern over the North's launch of a missile or
satellite.
At the end of a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, she stressed
the "need to have a conversation about missiles," saying, "We would like to see
it be part of the discussion with North Korea."
Clinton apparently witnessed closely her husband, former President Bill Clinton,
struggling to deal with North Korean nuclear and missile issues in his waning
months a decade ago.
Bill Clinton engaged in missile talks with North Korea soon after North Korea
launched a rocket to orbit a satellite and some of its debris fell into waters
off Alaska to shock the U.S., although the talks faltered due to North Korea's
demand for US$1 billion per annum in return for its suspension of development and
shipments of missiles and parts to Iran, Syria and other Middle Eastern
countries.
President Clinton pledged to visit Pyongyang to conclude the missile and nuclear
talks, but did not do that citing a lack of time, only to see successor George W.
Bush ignore all agreements with North Korea as part of a tougher stance with the
isolated communist state.
hdh@yna.co.kr
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