(EDITORIAL from the Korea Herald on March 14) - Not fooled

North Korea has made it official that it plans to launch an experimental
communications satellite.

Pyongyang has informed the International Maritime Organization that the launch could
take place between April 4 and April 8. The International Civil Aviation
Organization has also been advised of the planned launch. North Korea also gave
coordinates as a safety precaution for ships - an area in the East Sea and another
in the Pacific Ocean.

The move to inform these international organizations is a shift away from its
previous practice of undeclared launches. For example, a previous unsuccessful
communications satellite launch conducted in 1998 was announced only after the fact.


By making public its intention to launch, Pyongyang aims to buttress its claim that
it is pursuing a peaceful space development program. North Korea also signed an
international treaty and convention on the peaceful use of space, as further "proof"
that its upcoming rocket launch is part of its space program.

At the same time, the announcement weeks ahead of the planned launch gives the
international community ample time to form some sort of consensus. It also gives
Pyongyang time to gauge the reaction from other countries, especially the five other
members of the six-party talks.

Despite North Korea's assertion that the rocket launch involves putting a
communications satellite into orbit and thus constitutes a peaceful space program,
experts are unanimous in saying that the technology needed to put a satellite into
orbit and the technology for firing long-range missiles are very similar. In fact,
the ability to launch a satellite into orbit brings a country very close to
intercontinental ballistic missile capability.

While Pyongyang says that it is using an Eunha-2 delivery rocket to put a
communications satellite into orbit, security experts believe Eunha-2 is actually
Taepodong-2, a long-range missile capable of reaching Alaska.

In 2006, North Korea test-fired the three-stage Taepodong-2, which failed after some
40 seconds in flight. In October 2006 the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution
1718 which forbade North Korea from undertaking nuclear tests and launching
ballistic missiles. The resolution also called on North Korea to "suspend all
activities related to its ballistic missile program."

While the 2006 test-firing of Taepodong-2 failed, it is uncertain if the upcoming
launch will similarly fail. Iran successfully put a satellite into orbit last month
and given the known cooperation between Iran and North Korea on missile development,
Pyongyang may have reason to be confident of a successful launch this time.

ICBM capability combined with its nuclear capability will give North Korea an added
bargaining chip in the six-party talks. A successful missile launch would also
trigger an arms race in Northeast Asia, destabilizing the region.

For the rest of the world, the launch of Eunha-2 or Taepodong-2 - regardless of the
name - represents a proliferation risk. If the launch is a success, North Korea will
have a new item for export: long-range missiles.

North Korea must be deterred from going ahead with its planned missile launch. The
five other countries involved in the six-party talks should form a united front
against the launch. While South Korea, Japan and Washington have said that any
launch - whether ballistic missile or satellite - would violate the U.N. resolution,
China and Russia appear to take the position that if it is indeed a satellite that
is launched, it may be difficult to impose sanctions against Pyongyang.

This sort of fissure is exactly what Pyongyang aims to exploit. The five other
partners in the six-party talks must present a unified stance against the launch if
Pyongyang is to be deterred.
(END)