N. Korea may initiate surprise attack on S. Korea: ministry

SEOUL, March 18 (Yonhap) -- North Korea will likely carry out a surprise attack
on South Korea, simultaneously with the communist state's launch of what it calls
a communications satellite in early April, South Korea's defense ministry warned
Wednesday.
The latest warning followed Pyongyang's threat last week to push ahead with its
planned satellite launch in the sea off the Korean Peninsula between April 4-8.
"There is a good possibility North Korea may make a surprise but limited attack
on some areas along the inter-Korean border, with global attention mounting on
its planned missile launch," the ministry said in a report presented to a special
parliamentary committee on inter-Korean relations.
Pyongyang claims the rocket launch only aims to put its satellite into orbit, but
many believe it is a smokescreen for a test of a long-range ballistic missile.
Dennis Blair, director of U.S. National Intelligence, noted last week the
technology used to launch a satellite is "indistinguishable" from the technology
used to launch an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM).
If it does attack, the North's goal would be to create conflict between different
factions in the South, the ministry report said.
"It appears the North is trying to incite internal conflict in the South while
pressuring the United States' Obama administration to come to bilateral talks at
an early date," it said.
The relationship between the divided Koreas quickly deteriorated after Seoul's
conservative Lee Myung-bak government was inaugurated about 13 months ago. North
Korea frequently calls on what it describes as pro-unification figures in the
South to rise up against their government.
Still, the ministry noted the scope of any armed conflict prompted by the
communist state will be limited.
The possible provocations may include firing of short-range missiles near the
maritime border in the western Yellow Sea or limited provocations within the
demilitarized zone, according to the ministry.
The report also said Pyongyang was continuing with preparations for the missile
launch at its suspected launch site, forcing South Korea and the United States to
reinforce their surveillance capabilities.
The United States has suggested it may intercept any North Korean rocket
regardless of whether it is carrying a satellite or an ICBM, as either would
violate a U.N. Security Council resolution that prohibits Pyongyang from
missile-related activity.
North Korea warned that any attempt to intercept the launch would be met by grave
consequences, including a war.
bdk@yna.co.kr
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