NORTH KOREA NEWS LETTER NO. 46 (March 19, 2009)

*** TOPIC OF THE WEEK (Part 2)

N.K. Informs International Organizations of Satellite Launch in April

SEOUL (Yonhap) -- After repeated indications for weeks, North Korea gave notice
to two international organizations last week that it will launch a satellite
between April 4-8, prompting brisk talks among regional countries to prepare
coordinated measures.

South Korea and its allies have repeatedly warned Pyongyang to abstain from the
provocative act. But the North snubbed the warning and recently gave notice to
the U.S. through its diplomatic mission in New York that it will launch a rocket
in early April sometime between 11:00 a.m. to 4 p.m. (Seoul time).
Pyongyang's state media said March 12 it has informed the International Civil
Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) of
the planned launch, without specifying the date. The IMO confirmed it has
received a letter from Pyongyang that said the launch would be between April 4-8.
"IMO can confirm that it has received a communication from the Democratic
Peoples' Republic of Korea (DPRK/ North Korea) concerning the intended launch of
an experimental communications satellite," the London-based agency said in an
e-mailed statement.
In London, the IMO circulated a message to its member states to notify them of
the North's plans to fire a Kwangmyongsong-2 rocket between 2 and 7 a.m. (GMT)
between those dates, adding information on possible landing points of the
boosters in the Pacific Ocean and the East Sea between Korea and Japan.
Seoul officials said the North Korean rocket would be directed over the East Sea
and the Pacific, citing information on the orbiting coordinates they received
from the international agencies earlier on March 12.
North Korea also said March 12 it has joined two international treaties for space
development -- the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the
Exploration and Use of Outer Space including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies,
and the Convention on Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space. However,
entry was not necessary, as non-member states can also launch a satellite. "The
DPRK's accession to the said treaty and convention will contribute to promoting
international confidence and boosting cooperation in scientific research into
space and the satellite launch for peaceful purposes," the North's Korean Central
News Agency (KCNA) said.
North Korea has said it will consider any interception of its rocket by the U.S.
or Japan an act of war. A U.S. aircraft carrier group -- including an Aegis
destroyer capable of detecting and intercepting ballistic missiles -- has been
positioned off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula as part of annual military
drills with South Korea. The North also provided the ICAO and the IMO with
details on its planned rocket launch, including the projected coordinates.
Of the two potential danger areas identified, one is in waters off Japan's
northwestern coast and the other is in the Pacific, according to a map released
by ICAO. The map shows that if successful, a multi-stage rocket from a base on
the North's east coast would fly over Japan after shedding its first booster in
the East Sea. South Korean and Japanese authorities prepared to take safety
measures for their ships and airliners during the notified period.
The North's renewed missile activity was first detected in early February 2006 at
a base on its northeastern coast, when it fired a long-range Taepodong-2 missile
that plunged into the water about 40 seconds after lift-off. Intelligence
officials said the test was an apparent failure.
Countries in the region suspect North Korea may launch a long-range missile under
the cloak of a satellite launch. Officials say the technologies involved in
launching a missile and a satellite are virtually the same. Last week, the
North's military warned that any foreign attempt to shoot down the rocket would
lead to a war on the Korean Peninsula, insisting it has the full right to
peaceful space development.
Although neighboring countries are opposed to the North Korean satellite launch,
there are signs of a rift in handling it. South Korean officials said the launch
-- whether it is a satellite or a missile -- would violate a U.N. Security
Council resolution banning the North's ballistic missile activity. The resolution
was adopted after its nuclear and missile tests in 2006.
China and Russia, however, are expected to shy away from imposing further
sanctions if the North launches a satellite instead of a ballistic missile, as
they greatly diluted possible sanctions in 2006 as veto-wielding members of the
Security Council.
In a stern response, South Korea's foreign minister warned on March 13 that North
Korea would face U.N.-led sanctions regardless of whether it fires a missile or a
space vehicle. Yu Myung-hwan pointed out that all related nations have expressed
opposition to the North's move, which is certain to damage the already troubled
effort to denuclearize North Korea.
"Since North Korea's act is in violation of U.N. Resolution 1718, it should be
halted," ministry spokesman Moon Tae-young said in the statement. The U.N.
resolution, adopted unanimously in 2006 after Pyongyang conducted missile and
nuclear tests, prohibits the North from engaging in any type of ballistic missile
program.
The U.S. kept up its pressure on North Korea on March 13, urging once again that
it refrain from launching a rocket -- either military or scientific -- but
stopped short of specifying a response to any such action. "As to what will
happen and when things happen, I'll have to leave that for a future discussion,"
State Department deputy spokesman Gordon Duguid said in a daily news briefing.
"Most interpret a launch, as well, as being a violation of U.N. Security Council
Resolution 1718.
U.S. President Barack Obama has expressed concerns over the North's imminent
rocket launch, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has mentioned "a range of
options" that include additional sanctions by the U.N. Security Council. "The
president also highlighted the risks posed by North Korea's missile program," the
White House said in a statement on March 12 issued at the end of Obama's meeting
with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi.
Obama also pledged to continue the six-party talks on ending North Korea's
nuclear ambitions. "The president expressed appreciation for the important role
China has played as the chair of the six-party talks," the statement said. "He
said we will continue to work with China and other partners in the six-party
process to verifiably eliminate North Korea's nuclear program."
Obama's remarks on the North Korean missile threat came as U.N. Secretary General
Ban Ki-moon expressed similar concerns. "I'm concerned about the DPRK's recent
move to launch a satellite or long-range missile," Ban said in a news conference
at the U.N. headquarters in New York. "This will threaten peace and stability in
the region."
Ban's remarks came one day after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton proposed
missile talks with North Korea at the end of a meeting with Chinese Foreign
Minister Yang Jiechi. She also called for early resumption of the six-party talks
on ending the North's nuclear ambitions. Clinton on March 11 stressed the "need
to have a conversation about missiles," saying, "We would like to see it be part
of the discussion with North Korea."
Clinton discussed "a range of options," including additional sanctions by the
U.N. Security Council, which adopted a resolution in 2006 to sanction the North's
ballistic missile launch that year.
China, North Korea's staunch communist ally, and Russia, however, appear to be
reluctant to join the U.S. in sanctioning any satellite launch by the North as
they, along with the U.S., are the countries most frequently launching satellites
for commercial as well as military purposes.
But Russia took a more cautious stance. "Let us see when things really happen,
and then make conclusions and assessment," Russia's Vice Foreign Minister Alexei
Borodavkin, who serves as Moscow's chief nuclear envoy, told Yonhap after meeting
with South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan in Seoul on March 12.
Critics are skeptical of claims by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and other
senior officials that the U.S. has the capability to shoot down any ballistic
missile coming from North Korea, citing technological shortfalls and political
ramifications.
The U.S. engaged in missile talks with North Korea under the Bill Clinton
administration in the late 1990s, when North Korea shocked the world by launching
a rocket to put a satellite into orbit. Debris from the booster fell into waters
off Alaska.
The missile talks faltered at that time, as North Korea demanded US$1 billion per
year in return for suspending the development and shipment of missiles and parts
to Iran, Syria and other Middle Eastern countries.
President Clinton pledged to visit Pyongyang to conclude the missile and nuclear
talks, but did not do that in his waning months in office in late 2000, citing a
lack of time, only to see successor George W. Bush ignore all agreements with
North Korea as part of a tougher stance toward the isolated communist state.
(END)