S. Korea's March trade surplus to hit record US$4.5 bln: minister

(ATTN: ADDS with trade, exchange rate forecast from para 8)
SEOUL, March 24 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's trade surplus is likely to reach a
record US$4.5 billion in March thanks largely to a sharp drop in imports, a
senior government official said Tuesday.
Knowledge Economy Minister Lee Youn-ho told local business leaders and economic
analysts that preliminary reports by the Korea Customs Service (KCS) showed
imports plummeting 40.3 percent in the first 20 days of this month compared to a
13.4 percent drop in exports.
The KCS said that as of Friday, exports reached US$18.1 billion while imports
topped $15.5 billion for a surplus of $2.6 billion. The figure falls just short
of the $2.9 billion trade surplus tallied for February.
Because the country's exports usually surge in the last 10 days of the month, the
size of the surplus may easily exceed the $4.0 billion mark.
The current monthly surplus record of $3.8 billion was reached in April 1998 when
the country struggled to cope with the Asian financial crisis by cutting back on
spending and investments.
Related to the forecast, the ministry in charge of industrial policy and trade
promotion said that exports will continue to post double digit losses in the
first half with modest gains expected in the second half.
Government officials, however, warn that it may be impossible to meet the export
target of $426 billion this year since the global economic slump has reduced
demand for locally made products. The government's export target represents a 1
percent increase from the $422 billion shipped abroad in 2008.
Echoing such views, Kim Kyung-tae, head of the Institute for International Trade
said exports are expected to fall 18.4 percent on-year to $344.4 billion this
year, with imports falling 25.4 percent to 324.7 for a trade surplus of $19.7
billion.
The think tank under the Korea International Trade Association, meanwhile,
forecast that the Korean won will hover at 1,400-1,500 won to the U.S. dollar in
the first six months of this year, but will appreciate to 1,250-1,300 won to the
greenback in the second half.
yonngong@yna.co.kr
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