ID :
52187
Wed, 03/25/2009 - 11:00
Auther :
Shortlink :
https://www.oananews.org//node/52187
The shortlink copeid
(News Focus) N. Korea rocket launch to test U.S., China diplomacy
By Lee Chi-dong
SEOUL, March 25 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's planned rocket launch is expected to pose a major diplomatic challenge for the world's two leading powers, putting to test the U.S. and China's negotiating capability, officials and experts here said Wednesday.
The situation is further complicated by the possibility that the North will
actually succeed in sending a satellite into orbit as it says it plans to do,
becoming the world's 11th nation to do so, they pointed out.
North Korea falsely claimed to have conducted a satellite launch in the past to
cloak its long-range missile development. This time, however, many countries are
taking seriously Pyongyang's claim that it will fire a rocket carrying an
"experimental communication satellite" between April 4-8. They agree that the
communist nation appears confident of success, emboldened by the successful
satellite launch last month by Iran, which is known to have shared missile
technology with the North.
South Korea, the U.S., and Japan maintain that even a satellite launch is
arguably in violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1718 that bans the
North from any ballistic missile-related activity, saying the technology involved
is essentially the same as that used for missile development.
Still, North Korea's other dialogue partners in the six-way nuclear disarmament
talks, China and Russia, take a more cautious approach. The North's allies have
long advocated universal rights to space development.
"A positive aspect is that all the related nations have sent a concerted warning
to North Korea not to go ahead with a provocative act. But coordinating a joint
response to the actual launch of a rocket or missile will bring about more
realistic, diplomatic problems," a senior South Korean foreign ministry official
told Yonhap News Agency, asking not to be named.
He said in the case of a launch, the issue will be "automatically" brought to the
U.N. Security Council.
"The maximum measures we can think of now would be to adopt a new resolution for
additional sanctions, and the minimum would be a chairman's statement criticizing
North Korea's action," he said. "The result is a matter of diplomacy."
He said consultations between South Korea's top nuclear envoy Wi Sung-lac and his
Chinese counterpart Wu Dawei in Beijing Tuesday were part of efforts to narrow a
probable gap on countermeasures.
Emerging from hours of separate talks here earlier this month with South Korea's
Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan, Vice Foreign Minister Kwon Jong-rak, and Wi,
Russia's Vice Foreign Minister Alexei Borodavkin also hinted at a rift over
whether to impose sanctions on North Korea.
"Let us see when things really happen, and then make conclusions and an
assessment. All disputes and all friction should be discussed and resolved
through consultations," said the official, who serves as Moscow's chief nuclear
negotiator.
Analysts say that the North's rocket launch will remind the international
community that issues revolving around North Korea often develop into a "power
game" among regional players.
"I think that (a diplomatic row) is very likely. Pyongyang knows this and they
have been very good at exploiting this," Daniel Pinkston, senior analyst at the
Brussels-based security think tank International Crisis Group, told Yonhap.
He said the North's public announcements of its planned rocket launch seem to
indicate it is more confident.
"North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's confidence level is high enough to inform the
North Korean people prior to a test launch, which is different from 1998 and
2006," he said.
Andrei Lankov, associate professor at Seoul-based Kookmin University and
long-time North Korea watcher, said even if the North fails, it is very unlikely
to admit failure.
In either case, regional powers will face a dilemma. The U.S. government of
President Barack Obama will be confronted with its first grave test on the North
Korean issue and China's influence will also be tested.
When the North fired a Taepodong-2 missile, theoretically capable of reaching
Alaska, in July 2006 despite China's repeated warnings, Beijing rejected a
strongly-worded U.N. Security Council resolution proposed by Tokyo and negotiated
a watered-down, non-binding version. The missile at the time had failed about 40
seconds after lift-off from the same base on the east coast where the North is
believed to be preparing next month's launch.
China toughened its stance after the North's first-ever nuclear test three months
later, voting for Security Council Resolution 1718 which authorizes actions
"under Chapter 7 and taking measures under Article 41." Chapter 7 of the U.N.
Charter is meant to impose binding sanctions.
Beijing still opposed U.S. efforts to include a reference to Article 42, which
allows military action when deemed necessary to deter threats to the
international community.
"The role of the U.S. and China, after all, is important in discussing
countermeasures on North Korea's action," the senior South Korean foreign
ministry official said.
SEOUL, March 25 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's planned rocket launch is expected to pose a major diplomatic challenge for the world's two leading powers, putting to test the U.S. and China's negotiating capability, officials and experts here said Wednesday.
The situation is further complicated by the possibility that the North will
actually succeed in sending a satellite into orbit as it says it plans to do,
becoming the world's 11th nation to do so, they pointed out.
North Korea falsely claimed to have conducted a satellite launch in the past to
cloak its long-range missile development. This time, however, many countries are
taking seriously Pyongyang's claim that it will fire a rocket carrying an
"experimental communication satellite" between April 4-8. They agree that the
communist nation appears confident of success, emboldened by the successful
satellite launch last month by Iran, which is known to have shared missile
technology with the North.
South Korea, the U.S., and Japan maintain that even a satellite launch is
arguably in violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1718 that bans the
North from any ballistic missile-related activity, saying the technology involved
is essentially the same as that used for missile development.
Still, North Korea's other dialogue partners in the six-way nuclear disarmament
talks, China and Russia, take a more cautious approach. The North's allies have
long advocated universal rights to space development.
"A positive aspect is that all the related nations have sent a concerted warning
to North Korea not to go ahead with a provocative act. But coordinating a joint
response to the actual launch of a rocket or missile will bring about more
realistic, diplomatic problems," a senior South Korean foreign ministry official
told Yonhap News Agency, asking not to be named.
He said in the case of a launch, the issue will be "automatically" brought to the
U.N. Security Council.
"The maximum measures we can think of now would be to adopt a new resolution for
additional sanctions, and the minimum would be a chairman's statement criticizing
North Korea's action," he said. "The result is a matter of diplomacy."
He said consultations between South Korea's top nuclear envoy Wi Sung-lac and his
Chinese counterpart Wu Dawei in Beijing Tuesday were part of efforts to narrow a
probable gap on countermeasures.
Emerging from hours of separate talks here earlier this month with South Korea's
Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan, Vice Foreign Minister Kwon Jong-rak, and Wi,
Russia's Vice Foreign Minister Alexei Borodavkin also hinted at a rift over
whether to impose sanctions on North Korea.
"Let us see when things really happen, and then make conclusions and an
assessment. All disputes and all friction should be discussed and resolved
through consultations," said the official, who serves as Moscow's chief nuclear
negotiator.
Analysts say that the North's rocket launch will remind the international
community that issues revolving around North Korea often develop into a "power
game" among regional players.
"I think that (a diplomatic row) is very likely. Pyongyang knows this and they
have been very good at exploiting this," Daniel Pinkston, senior analyst at the
Brussels-based security think tank International Crisis Group, told Yonhap.
He said the North's public announcements of its planned rocket launch seem to
indicate it is more confident.
"North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's confidence level is high enough to inform the
North Korean people prior to a test launch, which is different from 1998 and
2006," he said.
Andrei Lankov, associate professor at Seoul-based Kookmin University and
long-time North Korea watcher, said even if the North fails, it is very unlikely
to admit failure.
In either case, regional powers will face a dilemma. The U.S. government of
President Barack Obama will be confronted with its first grave test on the North
Korean issue and China's influence will also be tested.
When the North fired a Taepodong-2 missile, theoretically capable of reaching
Alaska, in July 2006 despite China's repeated warnings, Beijing rejected a
strongly-worded U.N. Security Council resolution proposed by Tokyo and negotiated
a watered-down, non-binding version. The missile at the time had failed about 40
seconds after lift-off from the same base on the east coast where the North is
believed to be preparing next month's launch.
China toughened its stance after the North's first-ever nuclear test three months
later, voting for Security Council Resolution 1718 which authorizes actions
"under Chapter 7 and taking measures under Article 41." Chapter 7 of the U.N.
Charter is meant to impose binding sanctions.
Beijing still opposed U.S. efforts to include a reference to Article 42, which
allows military action when deemed necessary to deter threats to the
international community.
"The role of the U.S. and China, after all, is important in discussing
countermeasures on North Korea's action," the senior South Korean foreign
ministry official said.
