N. Korean rocket launch likely between April 6-8: Seoul officials

SEOUL, March 29 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's rocket launch is likely to take place
between April 6-8, government officials in Seoul forecast on Sunday, citing a
long-term weather forecast for the sky over the North's rocket launch site on its
east coast.
In early March, North Korea notified international aviation and maritime
organizations of its plan to launch a rocket to send a communications satellite
into space between 11 a.m. and 6 p.m. on April 4-8.
South Korea's meteorological agency said that snow or rain is expected in the
North's rocket launch site in the Musudan-ri area on April 4, while cloudy weather
is forecast the following day.
The agency, however, predicted that the sky over the North Korean rocket launch
site will generally be clear between April 6-10.
North Korea last week moved the rocket to the launch pad, about 300 kilometers
northeast of Pyongyang, the North's capital, portending its imminent blastoff,
according to U.S. and South Korean intelligence.
Researchers at South Korea's state-run Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI)
said the final launch date will largely depend on weather conditions, noting the
rocket may be launched between April 6-8, as long as the current weather
forecasts remain unchanged.
"The top priority in determining the timing for rocket launch is weather
conditions, because of their significant effect on various electronic devices,"
said a KARI scientist.
"Windy and cloudy weather, let alone rain or snow, is not suitable for a rocket
launch."
KARI researchers also said North Korea is expected to stick to its announced
rocket launch time zone of between 11 a.m. and 6 p.m., though there is generally
no specific time restraint on the rocket launch.
North Korea said the planned rocket launch is part of its space exploration
program but South Korea, the U.S. and other regional powers believe it is a
smokescreen to test-fire a long-range missile in violation of a U.N. resolution.
North Korea test-fired its long-range ballistic missile, Taepodong-2, at 5 a.m.
on July 5, 2006, though it turned out to be a failure later. That drew a strong
U.N. sanctions resolution.
Intelligence officials in Seoul said Sunday that the tip of the North Korean
rocket has been exposed to spy satellites passing overhead, but it is still
difficult to confirm whether the rocket is loaded with a satellite or a warhead.
"Spy satellites have detected the cover for the rocket tip has been removed, but
it is still difficult to clearly determine whether the object is a satellite or a
warhead," said a Seoul official said, asking to remain anonymous.
"We're in the midst of closely analyzing the object on top of the rocket. But we
may not be able to complete its identification before the rocket launch," he
said.
ycm@yna.co.kr
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