Congress has slight edge over BJP : US think tank

Lalit K Jha

Washington, Apr 17(PTI) Congress appears to have a slight
edge over the BJP in key states but both parties are likely to
fall short of a majority in the Lok Sabha elections which may
lead to intense horse-trading before a new government assumes
power,an American think tank has predicted.

It also feels there is small chance that a Third Front
could emerge in these elections should the communist parties
link up with key regional parties to challenge Congress and
the BJP.

"Congress appears to have a slight edge over the BJP in
key states, but neither party is likely to win a clear
majority of seats," Stratfor, based in Texas, said in its
analysis on the Indian elections released after the first
phase of polls.

The influence of these national parties has faded over
the years while smaller regional and caste-based parties have
proliferated, Stratfor said concluding as a result, intense
political horse-trading will ensue after the election.

"Both Congress and BJP therefore will need to throw all
their efforts into cobbling together a coalition with smaller
parties to have a chance at taking office June 2," it said,
without explaining how it expected the new government to
be formed on a particular date.

In its analysis, Stratfor noted that Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh, who is once again the Congress candidate for
prime ministership, "has announced that he is willing to bury
past differences with the left-wing parties, and would be open
for forming a new coalition with them should circumstances
require it".

"The left-wing parties will use their political clout to
try and sway the ruling party away from the United States,
though they are unlikely to have much success in determining
how New Delhi conducts its foreign relations," it said.

The left-wing front led by the CPI (Marxist) was vital
to forming Congress' coalition in the 2004 elections, but
became an annoyance as the ruling UPA sought to ink the
Indo-US civilian nuclear deal.

The think-tank said Congress' five-year stint in power
witnessed record growth rates of nearly nine per cent, but
felt that this is expected to slump between 4.5 and 5 per cent
in the coming year.

"The Indian economy has been more insulated than most
Asian countries in dealing with the global economic crisis,
but is still facing job losses, drops in industrial output and
slowdowns in the manufacturing sector.

Stratfor said there is unlikely to be change in the
foreign policy of the country by a government led by either
the Congress or the BJP. However, any government with the
support of the Left Parties would experience pressure for
change in the nation's foreign policy.PTI