(EDITORIAL from the Korea Herald on April 28) - More N.K. plutonium

It is likely that North Korea, having declared its withdrawal from the six-party denuclearization talks, will try to accelerate efforts to replenish its nuclear arsenal until it wins satisfactory concessions from South Korea, the United States and Japan. As long as the nuclear stand-off goes on, we, the nearest target, have no choice but to strengthen our military capabilities to counter the purported nuclear threat.

North Korea conducted a nuclear test in October 2006 and announced its possession
of weapons-degree plutonium in breach of the 1992 inter-Korean denuclearization
declaration. Seoul would therefore be justified if it reintroduced nuclear arms
into the country. Yet, the U.S. nuclear umbrella for South Korea can effectively
be provided by its air and naval forces deployed around the peninsula. So the
countermeasures should be focused on improving detection and interception
capabilities against a possible nuclear attack from the North.
The Ministry of National Defense has updated its 2010-14 defense plan to reflect
the North's increased nuclear and missile threats. Military authorities indicated
that the core of the revised plan was the acquisition and combat deployment of
early warning and anti-ballistic missile systems, known as the SAM-X project.
The early detection system, which will be capable of catching signs of nuclear
and missile attack before they are launched, can be installed by 2011. According
to news reports, PAC-2 Patriot antimissile missiles will be introduced sooner,
and the purchase of the PAC-3 missiles, which Japan has, will also be considered.
A more immediate plan is the acquisition of air-to-surface JASSM long-range
precision attack missiles which can destroy North Korea's covered nuclear and
missile bases.
The provisions for all these weapons and early warning systems will be fairly
costly. But possession of such advanced equipment will help create a sense of
security among the South Korean public. It will also make the North Korean
leaders realize that their nuclear blackmail will have only limited effect in the
face of ever-increasing antimissile capabilities on this side.
North Korea, for its part, will explore all avenues to bolster its nuclear
capability. Its Foreign Ministry spokesman said last week that the reprocessing
of spent nuclear fuel rods had started to produce weapons-grade plutonium.
Several kilograms of plutonium may be obtained from the spent fuel to add
possibly one more nuclear bomb to the seven or eight the North is believed to
have now.
Meanwhile, work to resume operation of the "disabled" 5-megawatt reactor in
Yongbyon will soon start by rebuilding the cooling tower, which was ceremoniously
destroyed last year. It is thought the North could introduce a new cooling system
which does not need the concrete tower structure. On the other hand, Pyongyang
could also spur development of a uranium enrichment system in parallel with the
plutonium process.
Pyongyang has described its nuclear program as self-defense through securing a
nuclear deterrent. Its survival strategy, which also requires the development of
long-range ballistic missiles, involves large chunks of national income going
into nuclear and missile projects. A regional-level arms race is developing, as
can be seen in South Korea's and Japan's new efforts to counter the North's
nuclear and missile threats.
North Korea will have to pour huge amounts of resources needed for the civilian
economy into its weapons of mass destruction. Any additional defense spending
forced on Seoul and Tokyo by the North's increased threats will be manageable for
the two countries, but Pyongyang's disoriented survival strategy will surely lead
the isolated regime to eventual self-destruction.
(END)