Accounts will illustrate recession: Swan

Treasurer Wayne Swan believes national accounts figures out this week will be a
barometer for just how hard the global recession is hitting Australians.

On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release March quarter growth
figures, which economists predict will reveal the second consecutive contraction in
quarterly economic activity.
Conventionally, a recession is considered to be two consecutive quarters of negative
growth, or two negative quarters of gross domestic product (GDP).
Mr Swan says the figures will be very important - but not because they will offer an
"official" sign of recession.
"This result will be really important," Mr Swan said in his economic note released
on Sunday.
"(This is) not because of technical economic concepts like whether Australia is in a
technical recession, but because it will indicate the sort of impact this global
recession is having on Australians."
Economists surveyed by AAP forecast a 0.2 per cent contraction in GDP in the March
quarter, coming after a 0.5 per cent backslide in activity in the three months to
the end of December.
No matter what the figure, Mr Swan is certain of one thing - without the
government's huge injection of funds into consumer stimulus and infrastructure, it
would have been much worse.
"The one thing we know for sure about our first quarter GDP outcome, is that without
the government's substantial economic stimulus, the result would be much worse," he
said.
That's not the message the opposition wants the public to take away.
Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull is reminding the community that the government's
initiatives have come with a $315 billion debt price tag.
"Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan have lost control of the economy," Mr Turnbull says in a
new television advertising campaign.
And he asks the public whether they believe the government's predicted timeline to
pull the nation out of debt.
Despite Australia's likely slide into recession, there are signs of hope for the
global economy that mean the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to leave
rates on hold in June.
The RBA meets on Tuesday - its first meeting since the budget - but is expected to
keep the official cash rate at a 49-year low of three per cent.
In the minutes from its May meeting, the RBA indicated tentative signs of recovery
were enough to stay its hand and it suggested it may be likely to keep this watching
brief for some time yet.