N. Korea likely to take time before returning to nuke talks: experts

(ATTN: ADDS remarks by Straub at bottom)
By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, June 16 (Yonhap) -- North Korea will take its time in returning to
negotiations over the dismantlement of its nuclear program despite international
calls for the reclusive communist state to cease provocations and return to
six-party talks, U.S. Korea experts said Tuesday.

"Although the two presidents urged North Korea to return to nuclear talks, I
believe that North Korea will respond poorly in the near term because the two
presidents also mentioned the U.N. Security Council's efforts to block North
Korea's nuclear and missile programs, pursuit of which North Korea argues is an
expression of their sovereign right," Scott Snyder, director of the Center for
U.S.-Korea Policy at the Asia Foundation, said in an interview with Yonhap News
Agency.
Earlier in the day, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and U.S. President
Barack Obama called on the North to return to the multilateral nuclear talks that
involve the two Koreas, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia.
"I want to be clear that there is another path available to North Korea, a path
that leads to peace and economic opportunity for the people of North Korea,
including full integration into the community of nations," Obama said in a joint
press session with Lee after a summit meeting at the White House, the second of
its kind after an earlier meeting in April.
North Korea, however, has threatened to boycott the six-party talks and restart
its uranium enrichment program to produce more nuclear bombs. It has also warned
of a nuclear war unless the U.S. and the international community withdraw
sanctions and hostile actions taken against the North in response to its nuclear
test on May 25.
"I believe this show of unity around the principle of taking a relatively tough
posture toward North Korea, basically the opposite of the Sunshine Policy, will
not bring North Korea back to the Six Party Talks any time soon," Denny Roy,
senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu, said. "Instead it will harden
Pyongyang's commitment to its present course and push the North Koreans to make
further gestures of defiance."
North Korea's provocations are widely seen as an attempt by North Korean leader
Kim Jong-il to make way for his third and youngest son Jong-un to take the helm
as his successor amid allegations of the senior Kim's failing health after a
reported stroke he suffered last summer.
"We should be careful, however, not to lose sight of the possibility that some or
all of North Korea's recent acts may be aimed at not the international audience
but the domestic audience," Roy said. "Also, we still do not know with certainty
whether Pyongyang wants to resume bargaining over its nuclear weapons program and
is simply trying to drive up the price we must pay, or whether Pyongyang is
trying to tell us that denuclearization is absolutely out of the question and we
must now treat Pyongyang with more deference, as a major-power equal."
Snyder echoed Roy's theme. "Obama's statement is his first endorsement of a
positive path for North Korea, but it may not be sufficient at this stage to
bring North Korea back to the negotiation table."
Both Lee and Obama said they will not bow to the North's traditional brinkmanship.
"There's been a pattern in the past where North Korea behaves in a belligerent
fashion and if it waits long enough is then rewarded with foodstuffs and fuel and
concessionary loans and a whole range of benefits," Obama said.
Lee also told the news conference that the "North Koreans will come to understand
that this is different, that they will not be able to repeat the past or their
past tactics and strategies."
The South Korean president went further, hinting at the possibility of shutting
down a joint-industrial complex in the North's border town of Kaesong, the last
remaining symbol of inter-Korean cooperation launched under the liberal South
Korean governments of the past decade.
The conservative South Korean leader has not provided food or fertilizer aid to
North Korea since taking office early last year, calling for progress first in
talks on denuclearizing the North, although his predecessors had provided about
500,000 tons of food and roughly as much fertilizer annually to the impoverished
neighbor.
Despite the gloomy outlook for the nuclear talks, the Lee-Obama summit has helped
the two nations consolidate their bilateral alliance as well as cooperation in
staving off a possible attack from the North, which is widely believed to be
equipped with a nuclear arsenal as well as long-range missiles.
"The United States has expressed clearly its commitment to utilize all means at
its disposal to ensure that North Korea cannot utilize its nuclear capacity as an
unchecked source of leverage or extortion against South Korea without facing an
unambiguous U.S. commitment to respond on South Korea's behalf," Snyder said.
The remarks were in reference to the nuclear umbrella provided for South Korea
and guaranteed by the U.S. in a written joint statement titled the Joint Vision
for the Alliance of the United States and South Korea, which was released by the
White House after the summit meeting.
"We will maintain a robust defense posture, backed by allied capabilities which
support both nations' security interests," the statement said. "The continuing
commitment of extended deterrence, including the U.S. nuclear umbrella,
reinforces this assurance."
The North's unprecedented provocations, ironically, helped Lee and Obama further
cement their countries' alliance, the scholar said, noting it is the first time
that a U.S. president has signed a written statement guaranteeing the nuclear
umbrella.
The summit was also notable in that it included a joint press session and a
luncheon meeting with Obama, far more than the hour-long meetings usually held
with the U.S. president.
"The summit has underscored alliance solidarity at a time of apparently
increasing tensions involving North Korea," Snyder said. "North Korea's own
actions have made such coordination easier than it might otherwise have been."
Roy agreed. "Most importantly, Obama expressed a philosophy on dealing with North
Korea that is remarkably similar to Lee's: we must break the old pattern and
insist that North Korea earns concessions through good behavior, instead of
making concessions first in hopes that this will produce good behavior," he said.
"It is remarkable to see this convergence among a conservative South Korean
leader and a liberal U.S. leader."
On the ratification of the Free Trade Agreement, pending since its signing in
2007, there are still differences that two leaders have yet to narrow down.
Lee said he talked with Obama about the KORUS FTA and "welcomed the initiation of
working-level consultations, to make progress on the issues surrounding the
agreement." He also noted that both sides "agreed to make joint efforts to chart
a way forward on the deal."
Speaking on the agreement, Obama said, "In Korea, there are issues of beef
imports. In the United States, there are questions about whether there's
sufficient reciprocity with respect to cars. These are all understandable,
legitimate issues for negotiation.
"Once we have resolved some of the substantive issues, then there's going to be
the issue of political timing and when that should be presented to Congress,"
Obama said. "But I don't want to put the cart before the horse."
Obama's remarks were in reference to sentiment among members of the
Democratic-led Congress, which is currently focused on health-care reform and
economic measures as it struggles with the worst recession in decades. There are
also concerns about a possible backlash from labor unions, the Democratic
political power base, which fears job losses stemming from the FTA.
David Straub, associate director of Korean Studies at Stanford University's
Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, said "the domestic political burden in
the United States is great."
"Obama has a number of legislative priorities before the KORUS FTA, including
especially health care," he said. "It will take considerable time but I believe
both countries will eventually approve the FTA."
He added that Lee and Obama "got to know one another better, which will stand
them in good stead as together they must weather the storms that are yet to come
from North Korea."
Roy described the summit as "a significant success for South Korea and
particularly for President Lee," saying Obama "reaffirmed the nuclear umbrella
and went as far as he reasonably could on the FTA" despite "strong skepticism in
his party."
hdh@yna.co.kr
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