N. Korea may face anarchy after Kim Jong-il`s death: scholar

By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, July 29 (Yonhap) -- North Korea may face anarchy after the death of
its leader, Kim Jong-il, due to a lack of a clearly powerful successor despite
reports that Kim has anointed one of his sons as heir, a Korea expert here said
Wednesday.
"The fact that no succession process has been put into place openly makes one
thing certain: the potential for anarchy within North Korea following Kim's death
is very real," Bruce Bechtol, a professor at the Marine Corps Command and Staff
College, told a forum at the Korea Economic Institute.
Bechtol also would not preclude North Korea imploding in dysfunction or exploding
with violence after the ailing North Korean leader's death.
"If no clear succession process is in place and no clear powerful leader is in
the wings who has a strong base in both the party and the military, what could
easily ensue would be a no-holds-barred grab for power between the military, the
party and the security agencies," the scholar said. "If so, there is no way to
predict the potentiality for implosion or explosion -- or both."
The North Korean leader is rumored to have contracted pancreatic cancer last
summer, when he also apparently suffered a stroke. Fewer than 5 percent of
pancreatic cancer patients live longer than five years, studies show.
North Korean media have recently shown Kim to be thin and limping, although he
was apparently healthy until last summer.
The reports on Kim's health come amid allegations that his third and youngest
son, Jong-un, has been named as heir.
Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law, Chang Song-thaek, who was recently appointed to the
all-powerful National Defense Commission, is said to be playing the role of
regent in the power transition.
Bechtol is pessimistic about the 26-year-old's future.
"Should Kim Jong-il not live long enough to build a strong power base for his
youngest son, many analysts suggest that Kim Jong-un would be vulnerable to the
old guard among the power brokers within the party and the military," he said.
"North Koreans place great emphasis on age and experience, and these are two
things the youngest Kim certainly will not have."
Any collective leadership that might appear after Kim Jong-il's death "would
likely be weak and unable to hold the country together for an extended period of
time," he said.
Kim Jong-il had consolidated power for two decades in various party and
government posts until the death in 1994 of his father, Kim Il-sung, North
Korea's founder.
"To attempt to radically disrupt this system as it has existed in the monolithic
communist government of North Korea would mean the likelihood of confusion, power
struggles and possibly even armed conflict among factionalized members of the
party, the military and the security services," Bechtol said.
Some observers have suggested that North Korea's recent provocations, including
its second nuclear test in three years and missile launches, aim to lend momentum
to a third-generation dynastic power transition in the reclusive communist state.

The North's nuclear and missile tests resulted in a U.N. Security Council
resolution that bans the North from any further nuclear and ballistic missile
tests and imposes financial sanctions and an overall arms embargo.
Adm. Timothy Keating, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, said last week that
the U.S. has drawn up contingency plans to cope with various scenarios in North
Korea after Kim's death,
"We are prepared to execute a wide range of options in concert with allies in
South Korea and in discussions through (the Department of) State, which would
have the lead, with countries in the region, and internationally if necessary,"
Keating said. "I don't think it is axiomatic that the departure of Kim Jong-il
means a national security crisis. We'd hope it wouldn't. But we are going to be
prepared if it does mean that."
hdh@yna.co.kr
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