North Korea-weekly review-6

NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 65 (July 30, 2009)

*** OPINION FROM EXPERTS

North Korea's Second Nuclear Test and China's Position

By Tai Hwan Lee (Director, Center for China Studies, the Sejong Institute, South Korea)

China supported the latest U.N. Security Council resolution imposing sanctions on
North Korea. Although more time is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of those
sanctions, China's participation is expected to have a significant impact on the
North Korean nuclear issue. However, Beijing's official position shows China
taking an ambivalent position toward North Korea. Some argue that China's saying
that Pyongyang may be able to enjoy normal trade, without identifying standards
to clarify "normal" and "abnormal" trade, could cause misunderstanding and be
interpreted as a sign that China has no intention of implementing the U.N.
resolution. Its follow-up in this matter will be a clear indication of to what
extent China is a responsible member of the international community and of
Beijing's willingness to exercise its influence over the North.

China's Official Position on the North Korea's Second Nuclear Test

The Chinese government has not significantly changed its position on North Korea
since its May 25 test of an atomic device. If anything, it has gotten softer.
Addressing the test, China's Foreign Ministry released a statement saying the
following: "The DPRK (North Korea) conducted another nuclear test in disregard of
the common opposition of the international community. The Chinese Government is
firmly opposed to this act ??? China strongly urges the DPRK to honor its
commitment to denuclearization, stop relevant moves that may further worsen the
situation and return to the six-party talks."
But in a press conference on June 25, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Qin Gang
announced that measures to deal with North Korea's second nuclear test should not
affect the well-being of the North Korean people, nor should it hamper normal
trade or economic activity.
China also called for the international community to "respond in a cool-headed
and appropriate manner" to the test, so as to pursue a "peaceful solution through
consultation and dialogue." Answering whether China will implement the sanctions
set forth in the U.N. Security Council, its Foreign Ministry responded, "We hope
parties involved maintain calmness and restraint ??? and not take any move that
may lead to further escalation of tension so as to press ahead with the
denuclearization on the (Korean) Peninsula and safeguard peace and stability of
the Peninsula and Northeast Asia."
China has also maintained that it has "normal relations with North Korea, its
neighbor." When Vice Chairperson Chen Zhili of the NPC Standing Committee
cancelled his visit to Pyongyang, it was made clear that is was not a diplomatic
move but that Chen had simply delayed his trip due to domestic commitments.

Chinese Experts' Opinion on the Second Nuclear Test

However, there are notable changes in the responses of Chinese experts to the
second nuclear test. Many now argue that it is necessary to change China's policy
toward North Korea, and that opinion appears to be gaining traction. Zhu Feng, a
professor at Beijing University's School of International Studies is one such
scholar. He points out that China's policies on the North Korean nuclear issue
and the six-party talks have been primarily based on the assumption that North
Korea's nuclear effort is an instrument guarantee the regime's security and
bargain for economic incentives. Zhu believes this assumption is wrong and that
the test reveals Kim Jong-il's ambition to solidify North Korea's standing as a
nuclear state.
He called the second nuclear test a slap in the face and a sobering wake-up call
for the Chinese leadership to the malign nature of their North Korean
counterparts. Yet he doesn't predict a fundamental change in China's policy,
saying that it's still too early to say what China would prefer to do against the
provocation of North Korea. Zhang Liangui, a professor of the Chinese Central
Party School, regards North Korea nuclear problem as an issue of environmental as
well as regional security. The nuclear test was conducted on the site which was
closer to China than Pyongyang, 85 kilometers from the Chinese border.
A number of schools in Yanbian had to evacuate students because of the earthquake
caused by the nuclear test. Xu Baokang, a reporter for the Renmin Ribao (People's
Daily) pointed out that North Korea conducted the second nuclear test in spite of
China's warnings. For some this is tantamount to a loss of face for China at the
hands of its impoverished and isolated neighbor. Shi Yinghong, a professor of
International Relations at Renmin University, argued that China should reduce
trade with North Korea if the situation worsens. Sun Zhe, director of the center
for US-China relations at Tsinghua University, said China should put pressure on
North Korea to protect China's security interests, as Pyongyang's frequent
missile tests could have a destabilizing effect in the region.
However, there are some with opposite opinions. Liu Jiangyong, a professor of
Northeast Asia studies at Tsinghua University, predicts that no substantial
change is likely in China's policy. This is because it would be hard to keep a
steady relationship with North Korea if China took a hardline policy resembling
the positions of other major powers.
Remarkably, anti-North Korean sentiments have been growing among China's
netizens. Considering that "anti-Pyongyang" views cannot be expressed in China's
tightly controlled media without approval from the top, this appears to be
evidence that changes are indeed taking place.
Debates on the North Korean nuclear issue will likely continue in China for the
time being. A recent survey by Huanqiu Shibao (The Global Times) of 20 top
Chinese foreign policy experts also shows that there are debates on policy toward
North Korea. Ten out of twenty experts were in favor of heavy punishment against
North Korea while the others opposed. With respect to the six-party talks,
fourteen experts responded that they were still viable, but the remaining six
thought they had already failed. Notably, responding to whether North Korea still
has a bargaining chip, 13 of the experts responded in the affirmative. This
result shows that China will likely maintain its cautious approach.

Future Prospects

China's official response to the second nuclear test does not reflect any
fundamental policy shift in that China repeatedly urges North Korea to return to
the six party-talks. Even the experts who want to see some change in North Korea
policy do not support strong sanctions. They would opt for diplomatic and
expressions of disappointment. This shows that many in China believe it is too
early for China to change its North Korea policy.
Although China takes ambivalent attitudes between international society and North
Korea rhetorically, Chinese policy at the action level shows consistency as far
as Northeast Asia and North Korea concerned. One reason for the widening gap
between rhetoric and action is that China deals with North Korea's nuclear
problem based on its grand strategy. This means that China approaches this
problem in the context of the stability of Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia
with the aim of creating a new order in the region. However, its big picture is
in the making and action cannot be followed based on the big picture yet.
China's main concern is the U.S. China has a relative advantage in this region
because it has leverage on both Koreas. China knows that both itself and South
Korea would suffer directly in case of an emergency situation in the North. The
damage to the U.S. and Japan will not be so great and thus they have different
stake. This causes China to act in concert with the U.S. and Japan in terms of
condemning North Korea's action rhetorically but hardly keeping the pace with
them in terms of actual sanction measure which might leads to collapse of North
Korean regime. What China worries most about is the possibility of Japan, South
Korea or Taiwan gaining nuclear weapons and sparking a regional arms race.
However, as long as U.S. provides its nuclear umbrella to South Korea and opposes
to proliferation of nuclear weapons in Northeast Asia, the chances of nuclear
armament is low, and China knows this.
China might be searching for a change in dealing with North Korea nuclear problem
but it surely will not turn over its cards first. In order to play as
"responsible great power," China needs to propose the policy for the stability
and peace of Northeast Asia instead of passing the buck to other countries like
United States. If the U.N. sanctions are to be effective, China's cooperation is
essential. Even with China's cooperation, the sanction might not be successful in
pushing North Korea to return to the six party talks. China should make new
effort to build a cooperative system that enables trust building and conflict
prevention in the region. This situation is a good opportunity for the U.S. and
China to consider South Korea as important actor. It is now time for South Korea
to facilitate trilateral dialogue among Korea, U.S. and China on issues
concerning North Korea and the Korean Peninsula.
(This is a revised version of an article that appeared in the July edition of the
journal "Current Issues and Policy," published by the Sejong Institute.)
(END)