Bill Clinton's N. Korea trip aimed at freeing journalists, not thawing ties: expert

By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, Aug. 3 (Yonhap) -- Former U.S. President Bill Clinton's surprise trip
to Pyongyang will likely win the release of two American journalists, but not
necessarily produce a breakthrough in bilateral ties, a U.S. expert on Korea said
Monday.
"Clinton's trip to Pyongyang has a good chance of success in getting the early
release of the two journalists," Denny Roy, senior fellow at the Honolulu-based
East-West Center, told Yonhap News Agency. "This will not necessarily lead to any
breakthrough in the overall U.S.-North Korea relationship."
Clinton, the husband of current U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, headed
to Pyongyang to free Laura Ling and Euna Lee, reporters for the San
Francisco-based Internet outlet Current TV, according to sources.
The journalists were arrested in March on the China-North Korea border while
reporting on refugees fleeing the isolated state. They were sentenced in June to
12 years in a labor camp for an unspecified "grave crime" and illegal border
crossing.
Secretary Clinton has called for the early release of the two journalists and
warned the North not to link their detention to the crisis created by North
Korea's second nuclear test in May. She said the issue "should be viewed as a
humanitarian matter."
Roy was optimistic about the prospect of the journalists being released.
"Recently, Hillary Clinton has given the North Koreans face by asking for amnesty
rather than criticizing their judicial system," he said. "More importantly,
keeping the journalists imprisoned for a long time is a disadvantage for North
Korea because North Korea looks like the bad guy mercilessly punishing two women.
Pyongyang should be happy to get rid of them."
"Bill Clinton's negotiations will probably involve how much the U.S. must pay in
terms of an expression of sorrow and gratitude and perhaps ransom money as well,
although it will not be called ransom money so the U.S. side also can save face,"
the scholar said.
Roy, however, was less hopeful that the high-profile visit to Pyongyang by former
President Clinton will lead to a breakthrough in stalled nuclear negotiations.
"Process does not guarantee results. Talking does not necessarily mean there is
anything new to talk about," he said. "If North Korea is not prepared to
negotiate denuclearization and the U.S. is not prepared to accept North Korea as
a nuclear weapon state, the relationship will remain at an impasse."
Clinton's trip comes nine years after his first attempt to visit Pyongyang while
finishing up his final term in late 2000. A flareup in the Middle East at the
time led him to cancel his travel plans.
Under the Clinton administration, high-level exchanges took place between North
Korea and the U.S. to address concerns over the North's nuclear and ballistic
missile capabilities, with then U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and
North Korean Marshal Jo Myong-rok visiting each other's capitals.
Clinton recently expressed regret that he was not able to visit Pyongyang at that
time.
Clinton's successor, George W. Bush, did not honor Clinton's promise for a visit
to Pyongyang by a U.S. President, instead labeling the North as part of an "axis
of evil" with which the conservative administration would not engage.
Prior to Clinton's arrival in Pyongyang Tuesday, Washington had rejected North
Korea' proposal to hold bilateral dialogue in place of the six-party talks to
resolve the standoff over Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs.
Washington has maintained that any dialogue should be held within the six-party
framework.
North Korea has said it has withdrawn from the multilateral talks for good,
citing hostile U.S. policy and international condemnations of Pyongyang's rocket
and nuclear tests.
The U.N. Security Council adopted a resolution in June banning North Korea from
conducting more such tests and imposed an overall arms embargo and financial
sanctions.
hdh@yna.co.kr
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