Clinton's trip to free journalists, not likely to thaw ties: experts

(ATTN: UPDATES with Snyder's remarks, more details, background throghout)
By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, Aug. 4 (Yonhap) -- Former U.S. President Bill Clinton's surprise trip
to Pyongyang will likely win the release of two American journalists, but not
necessarily produce a breakthrough in bilateral ties, U.S. experts on Korea said
Tuesday.
"Clinton's trip to Pyongyang has a good chance of success in getting the early
release of the two journalists," Denny Roy, senior fellow at the Honolulu-based
East-West Center, told Yonhap News Agency.
Clinton, the husband of current U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, arrived
in Pyongyang Tuesday (Seoul time), according to a terse report by North Korea's
official Korean Central News Agency.
Reporters Laura Ling and Euna Lee of San Francisco-based Internet outlet Current
TV were arrested in March on the China-North Korea border while reporting on
refugees fleeing the isolated state. They were sentenced in June to 12 years in a
labor camp for an unspecified "grave crime" and illegal border crossing.
Roy was optimistic about the prospect of the journalists being released.
"Recently, Hillary Clinton has given the North Koreans face by asking for amnesty
rather than criticizing their judicial system," he said. "More importantly,
keeping the journalists imprisoned for a long time is a disadvantage for North
Korea because North Korea looks like the bad guy mercilessly punishing two women.
Pyongyang should be happy to get rid of them."
Pyongyang, however, may still want the U.S. to pay dearly to get the reporters'
release, Roy said.
"Bill Clinton's negotiations will probably involve how much the U.S. must pay in
terms of an expression of sorrow and gratitude and perhaps ransom money as well,
although it will not be called ransom money so the U.S. side also can save face,"
the scholar said.
Scott Snyder, director of the Center for U.S.-Korea Policy at the Asia
Foundation, also saw high chances of their release.
"I believe it suggests the likelihood that the DPRK has signaled in advance that
he will come back with the two journalists," Snyder said. "To come back without
the journalists would constitute a major loss of face for Clinton." DPRK stands
for North Korea's official name the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
The high-profile visit to Pyongyang by Bill Clinton also spawned hope of a
breakthrough in Washington's relations with Pyongyang which in recent months
became chilled to the lowest level due to North Korea's nuclear and missile tests
and ensuing international sanctions on the reclusive communist regime.
Bill Clinton's trip comes nine years after his first attempt to visit Pyongyang
while finishing up his final term in late 2000 was aborted owing to domestic
issues and the collapse of pre-visit negotiations.
Under the Clinton administration, high-level exchanges took place between North
Korea and the U.S. to address concerns over the North's nuclear and ballistic
missile capabilities, with then U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and
North Korean Marshal Jo Myong-rok visiting each other's capitals.
Clinton recently expressed regret that he was not able to visit Pyongyang at that
time.
Clinton's successor, George W. Bush, did not honor Clinton's promise for a visit
to Pyongyang by a U.S. President, instead labeling the North as part of an "axis
of evil" with which the conservative administration would not engage.
Roy, however, was less hopeful that the high-profile visit to Pyongyang by former
President Clinton will lead to a breakthrough in stalled nuclear negotiations.
"This will not necessarily lead to any breakthrough in the overall U.S.-North
Korea relationship," he said. "Process does not guarantee results. Talking does
not necessarily mean there is anything new to talk about."
He conditioned any improvement on the willingness of the sides to make compromise.
"If North Korea is not prepared to negotiate denuclearization and the U.S. is not
prepared to accept North Korea as a nuclear weapon state, the relationship will
remain at an impasse," he said.
Secretary Clinton recently urged the North to return to the six-party talks and
pledged not to accept "half measures" nor to reward provocations, while warning
North Korea "will face international isolation and the unrelenting pressure of
global sanctions" until it agrees to denuclearization.
North Korea blames the standoff on Washington's "hostile policy," dismissing as
"nonsense" Clinton's statement that "full normalization of relations, a permanent
peace regime, and significant energy and economic assistance are all possible in
the context of full and verifiable denuclearization."
In calling for the early release of the two journalists, Secretary Clinton had
warned the North not to link their detention to the crisis created by North
Korea's second nuclear test in May. She said the issue "should be viewed as a
humanitarian matter."
Snyder, however, said, "This type of visit also provides an opportunity for the
Obama administration to send a message regarding its own expectations regarding
the future of the relationship with North Korea."
Speculation is that Bill Clinton will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il
to discuss a package solution on the North's nuclear and missile programs in
exchange for massive economic aid, normalization of bilateral ties and a
permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula to replace the fragile armistice
that ended the 1950-53 Korean War.
It is not clear at the moment whether Bill Clinton will follow the path of former
President Jimmy Carter, who visited Pyongyang to broker a nuclear deal between
the U.S. and North Korea and even an inter-Korean summit in 1994 at the height of
the first North Korean nuclear crisis.
Since its inauguration in January, the Obama administration has rejected North
Korea' proposal to hold bilateral dialogue in place of the six-party talks to
resolve the standoff over Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs.
Washington has maintained that any dialogue should be held within the six-party
framework.
North Korea has said it has withdrawn from the multilateral talks for good,
citing hostile U.S. policy and international condemnations of Pyongyang's rocket
and nuclear tests, including the U.N. Security Council resolution adopted in June
after the North's May nuclear test, to ban North Korea from conducting more such
tests and impose an overall arms embargo and financial sanctions.
"Whether or not the interaction leads to further bilateral talks between
Washington and Pyongyang will depend on whether either side imposes conditions
for dialogue that can be accepted by the other side," Snyder said. "This can be
an opportunity to reopen negotiations. The administration should reiterate its
willingness to have diplomatic relations with a denuclearized North Korea."
hdh@yna.co.kr
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