(EDITORIAL from the Korea Herald on Aug. 10)

CO2 emissions

The Korean government took its first step in preparing to cut greenhouse gas
emissions under a new international convention when it unveiled three separate
emission limits as potential options last week. By doing so, the government set
the stage for public debate on the permissible levels of carbon energy
consumption in the future.

The baseline used for the emission limits is the path of "business as usual,"
shortened to BAU. This scenario assumes that there will be no major changes in
attitude and priority regarding the consumption of carbon energy in the future
and that, as such, greenhouse gas emissions will increase at a projected rate as
each year goes by.
The government presented 21 percent, 27 percent and 30 percent reductions from
2020 BAU emissions as potential options. The cuts may look enormous, as claimed
by the chairman of the Presidential Commission on Green Growth.
"Our scenario meets the EU recommendations that developing countries cut
(greenhouse gas) emissions 15 percent to 30 percent on the BAU basis. Ours is
epochal," he said. His remarks may be technically correct, but they are in fact
misleading. There is nothing epochal about the scenario.
Such confusion results from the different economic statuses Korea assumed in the
1990s for the sake of convenience. It wanted to show off its economic prowess
when it joined the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a
Paris-based fraternity of well-to-do nations, in 1996. But it wanted to avoid the
burden of reducing greenhouse gas emissions when it insisted on being a
developing country before the Kyoto Protocol on climate change was adopted in
1997.
It was hailed as a diplomatic coup when negotiators succeeded in freeing Korea
from the obligation to cut greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. But
it has proven to be more of a curse in disguise than a diplomatic achievement,
given that the nation's greenhouse gas emissions have doubled in the past 15
years. No wonder Korea now ranks 17th in per capita greenhouse gas emissions
among the 30 OECD members.
The cuts the Korean government presented under the BAU formula last week - 21
percent, 27 percent and 30 percent reductions from the 2020 emissions - amount to
an 8 percent increase, a freeze and a 4 percent cut from the 2005 base year.
These BAU reductions are paltry when compared with the EU demands that
industrialized nations cut 25 percent to 40 percent from the 1990 base year by
the end of 2020.
Environmental groups are accusing the government of taking nothing but cosmetic
measures. One of them says the government is attempting to shun the
responsibility it shares with other developed countries when it presents a
scenario for BAU emission limits as a developing country.
On the other hand, opinion is divided among different industries. Companies
belonging to high-emission industries, such as cement producers, advise caution
while others acknowledge they cannot survive if they resist the call for cuts in
greenhouse gas emissions.
Taking all these differences into account, the government will have to build a
consensus, ahead of the U.N. conference on climate change in Copenhagen in
December, on the extent to which it will have to limit greenhouse gas emissions
under a post-Kyoto regime. But it will make a fool of itself among participants
in the U.N. conference if it proposes to increase emissions, instead of
decreasing them, from the 2005 base year. Undoubtedly, it will be the same with
the proposed freeze.
An actual cut in greenhouse gas emissions appears to be the only viable option.
But the target must be neither so large as to strangle business nor too small to
encourage a transition to energy-efficient production modes. A balance should be
found somewhere in between.
(END)