News Focus) N. Korea unlikely to accept Lee's proposal for dialogue, arms reduction

(By Byun Duk-kun
SEOUL, Aug. 15 (Yonhap) -- North Korea is unlikely to be moved by South Korean
President Lee Myung-bak's proposal Saturday to begin high-level dialogue on
reducing tensions between the countries as it sees no immediate need or reason to
mend ties with Seoul, North Korea experts here said.

They said inter-Korean relations could start to improve in the coming weeks,
though not because of Lee's pledge of massive economic and diplomatic support for
the North but as the result of Pyongyang's desire to engage Washington, Seoul's
closest ally, in bilateral talks.
In a speech marking the 64th anniversary of Korea's liberation from Japanese
colonial rule, the South Korean president proposed the divided Koreas begin
dialogue to find ways "for North Korea to defend itself" and for the
co-prosperity of both countries.
Lee said Seoul was also willing to convince the international community to help
develop the impoverished North if Pyongyang decides to abandon its nuclear
ambitions. North Korea is currently under tough U.N. sanctions for its second
atomic test conducted May 25.
"I sincerely hope the sides can talk with open hearts to find out how North Korea
will give up its nuclear weapons," the president said.
Cheong Seong-chang, director of inter-Korean studies at Seoul's Sejong Institute,
said there was a significant change in the underlying tone of Lee's policy toward
North Korea, noting it was the first time for him to propose high-level
inter-Korean dialogue since coming into office early last year.
"But there is a strong sense of continuity in his policy as his proposal for
dialogue is still based on the condition that North Korea first give up its
nuclear ambitions," Cheong said in a telephone interview.
"The problem is North Korea basically says it will not give up its nuclear
weapons until the North-U.S. relationship is normalized and all U.S. military
threats are first removed," he said.
Cheong said that linking a resumption of inter-Korean dialogue with North Korea's
denuclearization is the same as saying Seoul will not hold any dialogue with
Pyongyang under current conditions.
Koh Yu-hwan, a professor of North Korea studies at Seoul's Dongguk University,
noted Pyongyang may offer a reconciliatory gesture in the near future, but said
it is unlikely to take active measures to improve inter-Korean ties.
He agreed that the South Korean president's call for dialogue marked a
significant change from his previous stance, but said his offer lacked what
Pyongyang has long demanded as a precondition for any serious talks -- a pledge
to honor and implement past agreements between the two Koreas.
"The South may believe North Korea will take its offer if we make it attractive
enough, but North Korea is a society where justification is more important than
practical gains," Koh said.
"In reality, the most fundamental reason inter-Korean relations have been in a
deadlock is because there never was a clear pledge (from Lee) to implement the
June 15 and Oct. 4 joint declarations," he said, referring to agreements issued
at inter-Korean summits held in 2000 and 2007.
Still, the Dongguk University professor said there was a possibility Pyongyang
may try to improve its ties with Seoul and even come to the dialogue table,
though only to meet its own needs.
"North Korea is undergoing extreme economic difficulties due to the U.N.
sanctions and is probably facing serious food shortage problems due to recent
floods. It will have no choice but to seek a way out of such difficulties while
partly relying on humanitarian assistance from South Korea and other benefits of
inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation," he said.
Both Koh and Cheong, the Sejong Institute researcher, also noted Pyongyang may
try to improve its ties with Seoul as it is currently seeking to engage
Washington in bilateral talks.
"At least inter-Korean exchanges in the civilian sector may be resumed in the
near future because North Korea needs to somewhat manage its relations with the
South before any dialogue with the United States, or Washington will have no
choice but to listen to what its ally, South Korea, says," Koh said.
Cheong said the North's release this week of a South Korean worker detained for
nearly 140 days could be viewed as part of efforts to "manage" inter-Korean
relations, also noting such efforts could include an easing of the North's
criticism of the South.
Seoul's unification ministry said last week that the number of North Korean
broadcasts in which it criticized the South Korean president decreased nearly 40
percent to 275 in July from 454 the previous month.
bdk@yna.co.kr
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