(Yonhap Interview) N. Korea's nukes won't undermine economic ties with China: scholar

By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, Oct. 14 (Yonhap) -- China won't sacrifice its long-term strategy of
sustained economic cooperation with its communist neighbor North Korea despite
international concerns over the latter's nuclear ambitions, a scholar said
Wednesday.
"An unintended consequence of the recent Sino-DPRK economic and commercial
agreements is that by not directly linking them to progress in denuclearization
activity, Beijing has provided an alternative to Pyongyang," John Park, senior
research fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace, said.
Park was discussing the economic cooperation agreements signed during Chinese
Premier Wen Jiabao's trip to Pyongyang last week.
Concerns, however, have risen over the economic aid, which includes plans to
build a bridge linking the two allies across the Aprok River, undermining
international cooperation to sanction North Korea for its nuclear and missile
tests earlier this year.
Pyongyang has boycotted the six-party talks citing the U.N. sanctions, although
the North's top leader Kim Jong-il told Wen that Pyongyang may get back to the
six-party talks, hosted by China since 2003, depending on the outcome of
bilateral talks with the U.S. expected to be held sooner or later.
"Many analysts in Seoul are concerned that these Sino-DPRK agreements reduce the
effectiveness of sanctions in applying pressure on North Korea to return to the
six-party talks," Park said. DPRK is North Korea's official name, the Democratic
People's Republic of Korea.
The scholar expected Beijing will continue to push for the restarting of the
multilateral talks and would like to see a nuclear weapons-free Korean Peninsula.

"However, Beijing will also continue to pursue its strategic national economic
interests -- i.e. the development of its three northeastern Chinese provinces,"
he said. "Energy and natural resources in places like the North Hamgyong province
are critical to sustainable economic development in these Chinese provinces.
China will continue to pursue multiple separate tracks in dealing with North
Korea."
China is said to have invested heavily in North Korea during the past decades
despite the on-and-off North Korean nuclear crisis that first began in early
1990s.
China has long been reluctant to join punitive actions on North Korea despite the
fact that the North relies heavily on China for food, energy and other
necessities, although U.S. officials recently expressed satisfaction with the
level of cooperation Beijing has extended in sanctioning Pyongyang in recent
months.
China has reportedly dismissed U.S. proposal to discuss contingency plans in
North Korea amid rumors of a power transition to Kim Jong-il's third and youngest
son Jong-un, 26, after the senior Kim apparently suffered a stroke in the summer
of last year.
Some analysts say China is ready to acquiesce to North Korea's possession of a
nuclear armament. China may prefer the status quo to Korean reunification led by
South Korea helped by the U.S., they say, noting China's strategy does not aim
simply at North Korea, but includes Washington on a long-term basis.
Some reports said that China's output is expected to surpass Japan's by the end
of this year to become the world's second biggest economy after the U.S -- and is
forecast to outperform the U.S. within a couple of decades.
China already plays a leading role in the G-20 economic summit and other
international forums with its ample foreign exchange reserves having surpassed $2
trillion and a large portion of those reserves being U.S. treasury bonds -- a
factor that could ultimately destabilize the dollar and the credibility of the
U.S., which holds huge trade and budget deficits.
"Whereas the U.S. sees uncertainty in North Korea's future, Beijing is saying to
Pyongyang that the two countries can enjoy mutual prosperity in areas such as
joint development of DPRK natural resources and economic development," Park said.

The decades-old alliance between the two communist neighbors will continue to
work, he said.
"The main mechanism through which China and North Korea can create such a future
is the Communist Party of China- Workers' Party of Korea relationship," Park
said. "This party-to-party connection will serve as a basis for structuring and
carrying out joint economic development projects -- particularly in the mining
sector. Such unique bilateral activity will occur in a manner that's not linked
to DPRK denuclearization."
China's long-term interest in North Korea may also give leeway for Pyongyang to
maneuver in driving a wedge among parties to the six-party talks that involve the
two Koreas, China, the U.S., Japan and Russia.
"There are already early reports that North Korea has been reaching out to the
Democratic Party of Japan in an effort to entice the new government of Prime
Minister (Yukio) Hatoyama to engage in DPRK-Japan bilateral talks," Park said.
"The same is true of concerted North Korean efforts to increase opportunities to
hold bilateral talks with South Korea on a range of issues," he said. "If
Pyongyang is successful in initiating these bilateral talks, it will put pressure
on Washington in its effort to keep the policy coordination and cooperation among
the five in the six-party talks going. North Korea's charm offensive may have
been emboldened by Premier Wen's recent visit to Pyongyang and the Sino-DPRK
agreements that he signed."
hdh@yna.co.kr
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