ID :
86513
Wed, 10/28/2009 - 09:23
Auther :
Shortlink :
https://www.oananews.org//node/86513
The shortlink copeid
Jang likely to assume temporary power until hereditary transition in N.K.: defector
By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, Oct. 27 (Yonhap) -- Influential North Korean figure Jang Song-thaek will likely play the role of regent in helping to smooth the way for a third-generation power transition to one of leader Kim Jong-il's sons, a North Korean defector said Tuesday.
"With likely candidates dubbed too young to effectively govern, Kim Jong-il's
worsening health and the fear of a sudden power vacuum might justify resorting to
such a transitional system," said Kim Kwang-jin, former manager of North Korea's
Northeast Asia Bank in Singapore, who defected to South Korea in 2003.
"This power shift would most likely be made either to a power block with a
central player such as Jang Song-thaek or to collective leadership," Kim told a
forum here at the Brookings Institution where he is a visiting fellow.
Jang is Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law.
The defector was discussing talks of a power transition to Kim Jong-un, the North
Korean leader's third and youngest son, who is believed to be the senior Kim's
favorite.
Reports said the 26-year-old Jong-un has been for years serving as a mid-level
official at the North's all-powerful National Defense Commission, through which
Kim Jong-il controls the military as well as political and economic affairs.
In April, the North's parliament appointed Jang to the National Defense
Commission, apparently to allow him to play a caretaker role in a smooth power
transition.
North Korea last month revised its constitution to formally make the head of the
commission "the supreme leader" of the North.
The defector dismissed any chance of a military coup, saying, "No imminent
challenge will come from the military as long as Kim Jong-il is in control."
"The possibility of military coup is low," he said. "High ranking military
officials above the level of regiment commanders, as well as political leaders,
are under constant, strict surveillance and supervision. In this system, close
ties among superiors, subordinates and peers do not extend past official
matters."
Kim Kwang-jin said that the North Korean system does not allow for any formation
of power blocks.
"However, with a royal family background and high-level position at the
Administrative Department, Jang Song-thaek has developed a strong reputation and
is a trusted power in the Kim Jong-il regime," he said. "Jang could be expected
to begin in a capacity with less power than Kim Jong-il until a hereditary
successor would be deemed fit to serve."
Another scenario is the emergence of an interim collective leadership, he said.
"In the event that Kim Jong-il would not support Jang Song-thaek as the leader of
transitional government or if Jang were reluctant to do so, a collective
management could arise," he said. "In the case that a hereditary successor was
named, this option could be chosen to divert support away from Jang Song-thaek,
who with experience and reputation poses a possible threat to an incoming
hereditary regime. Or the opposite could be true -- Jang could recognize the
weakness of the hereditary heir and use it to wrest control of the state from the
Kim family."
None of Kim Jong-il's three sons has had major posts in the government, military
or the ruling Workers' Party. The senior Kim, by contrast, had consolidated power
for two decades in various party and government posts by the time of the death of
his father Kim Il-sung, the North's founding father, in 1994.
Jong-un was born to the leader's third known wife, Ko Young-hee, who died of
breast cancer in 2004.
The second son, Jong-chol, 28, who was also born to Ko, seems to be sidelined in
the succession due to a weak temperament stemming from a hormone-related disease.
Jong-nam, the oldest son, who was born to the leader's late second wife, Song
Hye-rim, has been adrift in China since 2001, when he was caught trying to visit
Disneyland in Tokyo with his son and wife on a forged passport.
The defector, however, said that 38-year-old Jong-nam still might have a chance
due to his affiliation with Chinese leaders, noting China has saved him from an
assassination attempt.
"It is believed that Kim Jong-nam's chances to lead would increase if (China)
became involved in the North Korean transition," he said. "Kim Jong-nam lives in
Macau and is generally assumed to act under the protection of the People's
Republic of China. If China found a reason to intervene, China might be expected
to give support to Kim Jong-nam."
hdh@yna.co.kr
(END)
WASHINGTON, Oct. 27 (Yonhap) -- Influential North Korean figure Jang Song-thaek will likely play the role of regent in helping to smooth the way for a third-generation power transition to one of leader Kim Jong-il's sons, a North Korean defector said Tuesday.
"With likely candidates dubbed too young to effectively govern, Kim Jong-il's
worsening health and the fear of a sudden power vacuum might justify resorting to
such a transitional system," said Kim Kwang-jin, former manager of North Korea's
Northeast Asia Bank in Singapore, who defected to South Korea in 2003.
"This power shift would most likely be made either to a power block with a
central player such as Jang Song-thaek or to collective leadership," Kim told a
forum here at the Brookings Institution where he is a visiting fellow.
Jang is Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law.
The defector was discussing talks of a power transition to Kim Jong-un, the North
Korean leader's third and youngest son, who is believed to be the senior Kim's
favorite.
Reports said the 26-year-old Jong-un has been for years serving as a mid-level
official at the North's all-powerful National Defense Commission, through which
Kim Jong-il controls the military as well as political and economic affairs.
In April, the North's parliament appointed Jang to the National Defense
Commission, apparently to allow him to play a caretaker role in a smooth power
transition.
North Korea last month revised its constitution to formally make the head of the
commission "the supreme leader" of the North.
The defector dismissed any chance of a military coup, saying, "No imminent
challenge will come from the military as long as Kim Jong-il is in control."
"The possibility of military coup is low," he said. "High ranking military
officials above the level of regiment commanders, as well as political leaders,
are under constant, strict surveillance and supervision. In this system, close
ties among superiors, subordinates and peers do not extend past official
matters."
Kim Kwang-jin said that the North Korean system does not allow for any formation
of power blocks.
"However, with a royal family background and high-level position at the
Administrative Department, Jang Song-thaek has developed a strong reputation and
is a trusted power in the Kim Jong-il regime," he said. "Jang could be expected
to begin in a capacity with less power than Kim Jong-il until a hereditary
successor would be deemed fit to serve."
Another scenario is the emergence of an interim collective leadership, he said.
"In the event that Kim Jong-il would not support Jang Song-thaek as the leader of
transitional government or if Jang were reluctant to do so, a collective
management could arise," he said. "In the case that a hereditary successor was
named, this option could be chosen to divert support away from Jang Song-thaek,
who with experience and reputation poses a possible threat to an incoming
hereditary regime. Or the opposite could be true -- Jang could recognize the
weakness of the hereditary heir and use it to wrest control of the state from the
Kim family."
None of Kim Jong-il's three sons has had major posts in the government, military
or the ruling Workers' Party. The senior Kim, by contrast, had consolidated power
for two decades in various party and government posts by the time of the death of
his father Kim Il-sung, the North's founding father, in 1994.
Jong-un was born to the leader's third known wife, Ko Young-hee, who died of
breast cancer in 2004.
The second son, Jong-chol, 28, who was also born to Ko, seems to be sidelined in
the succession due to a weak temperament stemming from a hormone-related disease.
Jong-nam, the oldest son, who was born to the leader's late second wife, Song
Hye-rim, has been adrift in China since 2001, when he was caught trying to visit
Disneyland in Tokyo with his son and wife on a forged passport.
The defector, however, said that 38-year-old Jong-nam still might have a chance
due to his affiliation with Chinese leaders, noting China has saved him from an
assassination attempt.
"It is believed that Kim Jong-nam's chances to lead would increase if (China)
became involved in the North Korean transition," he said. "Kim Jong-nam lives in
Macau and is generally assumed to act under the protection of the People's
Republic of China. If China found a reason to intervene, China might be expected
to give support to Kim Jong-nam."
hdh@yna.co.kr
(END)
