(Yonhap Interview) U.N. sanctions on N. Korea raise risk of proliferation: expert

By Lee Chi-dong

SEOUL, Nov. 4 (Yonhap) -- Regional powers seeking North Korea's denuclearization should set a clearer and more realistic goal in dealing with the communist regime as U.N. sanctions could push it deeper into the international nuclear black market, a U.S. expert said Wednesday.

Balbina Y. Hwang, former State Department adviser on Korean affairs, said U.N.
sanctions on Pyongyang, aimed at curbing its illicit arms trade and financial
transactions, could be counterproductive, risking proliferation.
"The logic of the current policy of international sanctions is to increase the
pressure on North Korea and force it to return to cooperating with the
international community," she said in an interview with Yonhap.
"But the problem is that by limiting North Korea's access to legitimate means of
earning hard currency, we may actually be increasing the very behavior we are
trying to prevent: proliferation."
The U.S., South Korea, and Japan must decide whether the goal is
denuclearization, or whether the priority should be to address other security
concerns which may be more immediate, she said.
Hwang, professor at Georgetown University and National Defense University, took
note of North Korea's assertion Tuesday that it completed the reprocessing of
8,000 spent fuel rods in August at its main nuclear facilities in Yongbyon.
The announcement chipped away at a claim by hardliners in Washington and Seoul
that the North has begun to succumb to the persistent U.N. sanctions, enforced
after its second nuclear test in May, and raise the white flag.
She pointed out that it shows the North's typical dual tactic of seeking dialogue
with the U.S. and also continuing to bolster its nuclear arsenal.
Hwang, who once worked as senior special adviser to Christopher Hill when he was
Washington's top nuclear negotiator under the Bush administration, said she is
not against the North Korea-U.S. bilateral talks "on a matter of principle."
"However, it would be a grave mistake for the U.S. to send its representatives to
the North to hold such talks," she said in response to media reports that the
Obama administration may soon accept Pyongyang's invitation and send Stephen
Bosworth, its top envoy on North Korea policy.
Hwang said the venue for such one-on-one meeting should be a third country, for
instance, Berlin, Geneva, or Singapore.
"This is because there is great symbolic and political value to North Korea if
the U.S. representative goes to Pyongyang," she said. "It means that North Korea
is dictating the terms of the meeting. No matter how much the outside community
may downplay the significance of the visit, for North Korea, it raises
unrealistic expectations about the future and how much the U.S. is willing to
concede."
She was cautious about the feasibility of the "grand bargain" proposal made by
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.
It calls for North Korea to dismantle the "core parts" of its nuclear program and
receive security assurances and economic incentives, all in one package. It
compares with Hill's "piecemeal" deal with North Korea on reversible
denuclearization measures, now criticized as having been unsuccessful.
Hwang said she would not say Hill, now Washington's ambassador to Iraq, did a
perfect job as nuclear envoy, but said she has sympathy for him.
His primary task at that time was to prevent the crisis from worsening, and in
that regard, he has done his work, she said, adding Hill had to face much
difficulties in convincing polarized opinion leaders in Washington.
With regard to the Seoul-Washington alliance, Hwang said the South Korean
president has done a "great job in making sure the alliance is running smoothly."
Some of the credit, however, goes to late former President Roh Moo-hyun, she
said, because his administration initiated many of the changes being made to
strengthen the alliance such as the free trade agreement.
"Also, precisely because times were so tense between Roh Moo-hyun and the Bush
administration, both current governments are working very hard to avoid all the
difficulties encountered during the years," she said.
Hwang, born in South Korea and educated in the U.S., hailed Seoul's decision to
dispatch troops to Afghanistan again.
"Koreans should consider the merits of South Korea's support for Afghanistan in
terms of South Korea's national interest, and not because it is something the
U.S. wants, or it is something that will support the alliance," she said.
The troop dispatch will provide invaluable experience to the South Korean
military in stabilization training and also allow Seoul to show the world that it
is serious about being a global power and a global leader, Hwang said.
lcd@yna.co.kr
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