EL NINO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL JANUARY

Jakarta, Nov. 7 (ANTARA) - The ongoing El Nino phenomenon is expected to continue strengthening and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010, according to a US weather service.

"Expected El Nino impacts during November 2009-January 2010 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia," the Camp Springs-based Climate Prediction Center of NOAA (US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration)/National Weather Service said in a press release received by ANTARA here on Saturday.

During October 2009, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Nino-3.4 index increased nearly a degree with the most recent weekly value at +1.5 degree C.

"Above-average subsurface temperature anomalies increased across a large region of the central and east-central Pacific, with anomalies ranging between +1 to +5 degrees C by the end of the month," the NOAA statement said.

Consistent with this warming, subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average departures in the upper 300m of the ocean) also increased during the month. In addition, low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies strengthened over much of the equatorial Pacific.
"The pattern of tropical convection also remained consistent with El Nino, with enhanced convection over the west-central Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia," it stated.

Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strengthening El Nino, according to the weather prediction.
There continues to be disagreement among the models on the eventual strength of El Nino, but the majority indicate that the three-month average Nino-3.4 SST index value will range between +1.0 degree C and +1.5 degree C during the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Consistent with the historical evolution of El Nino, a peak in SST anomalies is expected sometime during November-January.

At this time, there is a high degree of uncertainty over how long this event will persist. Most of the models suggest that this event will last through March-May 2010, although the most likely outcome is that El Nino will peak at least at moderate strength (3-month Nino-3.4 SST index of +1.0 degree C or greater) and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Some parts of Indonesia are currently experiencing droughts which have caused water shortages in several areas.