Japan lobbied for robust nuclear umbrella before power shift

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TOKYO, Nov. 23 Kyodo -
Before the shift in political power in Japan in September, the Japanese
government aggressively lobbied a U.S. congressional nuclear taskforce to
maintain the credibility of the U.S. ''nuclear umbrella'' as a deterrence
against possible attacks from China, North Korea and other nations, according
to sources familiar with the matter Monday.
The lobbying by the only country to have suffered atomic bombings for robust
nuclear deterrence capabilities came just before U.S. President Barack Obama
pledged that his country would pursue the ''peace and security of a world
without nuclear weapons.''
Meeting with members of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture
of the United States, Japanese senior diplomats expressed their deep concerns
about the future capability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella, which has been
expected to deter military attacks against Japan even after the end of the Cold
War, the sources said.
The diplomats also told the commission, created by legislation Congress passed
under the administration of President George W. Bush, that a capability to
penetrate underground targets with low-yield nuclear devices would strengthen
the credibility of an extended nuclear deterrence protecting Japan, they said.
The U.S. military currently has only one type of high-yield nuclear
earth-penetrator, the B61-11, which has about 20 times the explosive power of
the Hiroshima type atom-bomb. It would potentially be so destructive and
devastating to innocent civilians that most U.S. military analysts and
officials consider the B61-11 too powerful to use in battlegrounds.
In the first half of the 2000s, the Bush administration tried to develop a new
type of lower-yield nuclear earth penetrator, called the Robust Nuclear Earth
Penetrator or RNEP, but in vain due to opposition from even a
Republican-dominated Congress. Congressional members were worried that such a
weapon would send the wrong signal to a world facing new types of nuclear
threat, worldwide nuclear proliferation and possible nuclear transfer to
terrorists.
The Japanese diplomats also told the commission, chaired by former U.S. Defense
Secretary William Perry, that if the U.S. government ever considers retiring
the nuclear-tipped Tomahawk Land Attack Missile or TLAM-N, Japan would like to
be consulted ahead of any decision, the sources said.
The diplomats suggested they believe the TLAM-N, a submarine-launched delivery
system, is an important element to maintain the credibility of the U.S. nuclear
umbrella against China and North Korea, they said.
The Japanese lobbying activities were conducted at least twice from autumn last
year to February this year, according to the sources both in the United States
and Japan.
The commission's final report published in May said, ''In Asia, extended
deterrence relies heavily on the deployment of nuclear cruise missiles on some
Los Angeles class attack submarines -- the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile/Nuclear
(TLAM/N). This capability will be retired in 2013 unless steps are taken to
maintain it.''
The report continues, ''In our work as a Commission it has become clear to us
that some U.S. allies in Asia would be very concerned by TLAM/N retirement.''
The vice chairman of the commission, former Defense Secretary James
Schlesinger, admitted that ''some U.S. allies in Asia'' meant Japan during an
interview with Kyodo News in July.
''(We are) hopeful we will maintain the nuclear Tomahawk because it is a more
relevant condition (in Asia) than Europe...The Chinese have begun moderate but
still significant nuclear build-up over the course of the last half-decade or
so. So Japan is, would be, understandably more concerned about the possibility
of a nuclear threat now than during the Cold War,'' he said.
Currently, the Obama administration is in the final process of formulating the
''Nuclear Posture Review,'' a new nuclear strategic guideline that will
stipulate basic nuclear defense, disarmament and non-proliferation policies in
the next five to 10 years.
One of the focuses on the NPR is whether TLAM-N will be maintained or retired
in 2013 and U.S. allies in Asia like Japan have been paying special attention
to it. The NPR will be finalized and sent to the Congress early next year.
Schlesinger showed support for retaining TLAM-N for Japan in the foreseeable
future, saying that ''removing part of the maritime capability relating to the
defense of Japan, a maritime nation, would be a matter that we would be
attentive to.''
One of the key architects of the NPR is a former staff member of the
commission, Bradley Roberts, current Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense in
charge of nuclear policy.
So it is assumed by specialists and diplomats in the United States and Japan
that the final report of the commission would have some influence on the
upcoming outcome of the NPR.
The commission's recommendation in the final report says, ''The United States
should also retain capabilities for the delivery of non-strategic nuclear
weapons and proceed in close consultation with allies in Europe and Asia in
doing so.'' TLAM-N is one of a few delivery systems for ''non-strategic nuclear
weapons.''
But some U.S. nuclear experts criticized this recommendation and the position
of the Japanese government.
''It is very surprising that officials within the Japanese government have
lobbied the United States to retain the nuclear Tomahawk,'' said Jeffrey Lewis,
a nuclear expert known for his widely-read website blog ArmsControlWonk.com.
According to Lewis, TLAM-N ''can drift off course and fly into the terrain that
is supposed to guide it.'' The targeting system of TLAM-N, which is not
equipped with GPS due to concerns about jamming and spoofing, is unstable and
unpredictable compared to other conventional mid-range missiles.
That means if a TLAM-N targeting North Korea is launched from the Pacific
Ocean, it might accidentally crash in Japan or South Korea, Lewis pointed out.
In fact, during Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003, more modernized conventional
Tomahawk missiles went astray and hit Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran, according
to Lewis. Because of this technical problem, the U.S. Navy has insisted on the
retirement of TLAM-N. Lewis will publish in-depth technical analyses on his
website, possibly as early as Monday.
Hans Kristensen, another nuclear expert in Washington, also criticized the
Japanese stance of seeking to hold on to the Cold War-type weapon system.
''They are just sort of grabbing a lot of phrases from (Cold War) debates'' and
using them even though they do not know what they mean, Kristensen, director of
the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said
of the lobbying by Japanese diplomats.
He said the Japanese diplomats submitted a three-page paper to the commission
in order to explain their position on a future U.S. nuclear posture.
Kristensen characterized this paper as a ''wish list'' for the following U.S.
nuclear capabilities in the Pacific -- ''credible'' (reliable forces including
modernized warheads), ''flexible'' (capacity to hold a variety of targets at
risk), ''responsive'' (quick response to contingencies), ''discriminate''
(inclusion of low-yield options for minimum collateral damage,) ''stealthy''
(deployment of submarines equipped with nuclear arms), and ''visible''
(deployment of B-2 and B-52 bombers to Guam).
He revealed these details in the Japanese magazine ''Sekai'' this month.
==Kyodo
2009-11-23 22:10:48