U.S. not likely to offer new carrots to woo Pyongyang back to 6-way talks: expert

By Hwang Doo-hyong

WASHINGTON, Dec. 7 (Yonhap) -- The U.S. point man on North Korea, Stephen
Bosworth, will not likely offer any new incentives to coax the North back to
six-party talks, deadlocked over international sanctions for Pyongyang's nuclear
and missile tests, a U.S. expert said Monday.
Bosworth, special representative for North Korea policy, is due in Pyongyang
Tuesday for the first official contact with the nuclear armed North since the
inauguration of U.S. President Barack Obama in January.
"The United States is unlikely to offer any new carrots or incentives to the DPRK
to encourage a return to the agreement," said Victor Cha, an expert on Korea at
the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in a contribution to the CSIS
Web site. "There is very little appetite for that in Washington, especially after
the May 2009 nuclear test." DPRK stands for North Korea's official name, the
Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
North Korea has insisted on resolving the nuclear standoff through bilateral
talks with the U.S., although its leader, Kim Jong-il, recently hinted at a
possible return to the six-party talks depending on the outcome of upcoming
one-on-one talks in Pyongyang.
"The U.S. agenda will most likely be to restate clearly the Obama
administration's desire to return to the six-party talks and implementation of
the 2005 denuclearization joint statement," Cha said. "The objective remains to
disable and destroy as much of the North's nuclear program as quickly as
possible."
The 2005 deal was signed by the two Koreas, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia to
provide massive economic aid, normalize ties with the reclusive communist state
and replace the armistice signed at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War with a
peace treaty in return for the North's nuclear dismantlement.
North Korea has boycotted the six-party process due to U.N. sanctions for a
barrage of missile tests and an ensuing nuclear detonation, the second of its
kind since 2006, earlier this year, complaining the multilateral forum has been
used as a tool of suppression.
Cha said he expects the North to "seek to justify their missile test in April
2009 as a legitimate satellite launch and will more broadly seek to engage the
United States in bilateral negotiations at the exclusion of six-party talks."
The best scenario for the bilateral talks in Pyongyang will be for the North to
agree to rejoin the multilateral forum early next year, he said. "The worst
outcome is North Korea's continued intransigence and a demand for U.S. apologies
and removal of UNSCR 1874 sanctions."
The U.N. Security Council resolution was approved with a vote from China, North
Korea's staunchest ally.
U.S. officials have said they will not discuss substance in the bilateral talks
and that the North's demand for establishment of a peace treaty and normalization
of ties should be dealt with at the six-party talks.
Cha, former deputy head of the U.S. delegation to the six-party talks under the
Bush administration, contradicted reports that the sides have agreed to at least
two bilateral meetings before Pyongyang's return to the six-party talks.
"It appears the Obama administration has authorized only one meeting," he said.
"Naturally, it will make a determination after this meeting whether others are
necessary. The administration has noted that it will not allow these contacts to
turn into a bilateral negotiation that excludes other members of the six-party
process."
State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said last week that North Korea has given no
indication that it will return to the six-party talks. "I am not aware that they
have indicated that."
Some analysts say any failure to bring the North back to the six-party talks will
result in the U.S. shifting responsibilities to China.
Cha agreed. "Should the meeting fail to bring the North back to the talks, (it
will) provide a pretext for pressing China to use more of its material leverage
on the North to seek a return to those talks."
hdh@yna.co.kr