N. Korea may detonate 3rd nuclear device: think tank

SEOUL, Dec. 25 (Yonhap) -- North Korea may detonate a third nuclear device and
provoke border clashes in the future that could escalate tension on the Korean
Peninsula, a report by a state-run think tank said Friday.
In a report on possible developments in 2010, the Korea Institute for Defense
Analyses (KIDA) warned Pyongyang may test another nuclear device to show the
world that it has no plans to give up its atomic weapons program.
"Such a step could highlight that North Korea is a nuclear power," the report
said. It added that North Korea might even launch an intercontinental ballistic
missile capable of reaching U.S. territories in the Pacific and the western coast
of North America.
The communist country tested its first nuclear weapon in October 2006 and another
more powerful device on May 25. The explosion that took place earlier in the year
is estimated to have had a yield five times that of the 2006 device.
"The recent explosion has been estimated to have had a 4-kiloton yield,
indicating that the North has made headway in developing an operational nuclear
weapon," the latest findings said.
KIDA said that if the international community starts to accept the North as a
nuclear power, this can cause public opinion in South Korea to move toward
building up its own nuclear deterrent capabilities.
In addition, the institute said the North may try to incite military clashes
along the inter-Korean border.
It said if the North were to invade islands in the Yellow Sea just south of the
Northern Limit Line (NLL), it could trigger a strong response by South Korea.
Such developments may cause the dismantlement of the armistice regime signed
after the Korea War (1950-1953) and weaken the NLL that has been the de facto sea
border between the two countries.
There has been a total three clashes along the NLL so far, with the latest taking
place on Nov. 10.
KIDA, meanwhile said that although clashes along the 248-kilometer demilitarized
zone could take place, such events will probably be short firefights between
troops, while air-to-air combat is not likely due to the North's weak Air Force
assets.
yonngong@yna.co.kr
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