ID :
97236
Tue, 12/29/2009 - 08:16
Auther :
Shortlink :
https://www.oananews.org//node/97236
The shortlink copeid
Expectations grow for third inter-Korean summit in 2010
By Kim Hyun
SEOUL, Dec. 29 (Yonhap) -- The outlook for inter-Korean relations in 2010 appears to be slightly brighter than in 2009, with expectations rising for a third inter-Korean summit and the North's dialogue with the U.S. and other regional powers, watchers and officials in Seoul said.
As seen in the South's recent shipment of anti-viral drug Tamiflu to the North,
signs of cross-border exchanges and cooperation will likely be more evident next
year, they forecast.
President Lee Myung-bak's recent declaration that he is ready to meet North
Korean leader Kim Jong-il "anytime and anywhere" to resolve the protracted
nuclear standoff on the divided peninsula and tackle other thorny issues has
triggered speculation on the possibility of a third inter-Korean summit in 2010.
The answer will eventually hinge on the outcome of North Korea-U.S. dialogue that
has always had reverberations for inter-Korean diplomacy, but experts see a slew
of other factors that may brighten chances for a summit.
Confronted with local elections in June 2010, nearly the midpoint of his
five-year term, President Lee may seriously weigh the effects of a summit with
North Korean leader Kim, a political feat that instantly raised the standings of
his two liberal predecessors, said Rhee Bong-jo, who was vice unification
minister from 2004 to 2006.
"A summit with North Korea will delay lame-duck status for President Lee," said
Rhee, who currently works for a state-run think tank, the Korea Institute for
National Unification. "With such political demand at home and the international
climate moving in a favorable way, the president has come to a point where he
might seriously consider an inter-Korean summit."
Cheong Wa Dae, the presidential office, denies any talks are under way to arrange
a summit, but the Koreas did begin to gauge their summit possibility during the
second half of this past year, according to multiple government sources
well-versed in inter-Korean affairs.
The North Korean leader proposed a summit through his envoys in August. In
October, Labor Minister Yim Tae-hee, a close confidant to Lee, secretly flew to
Singapore to meet with Kim Yang-gon, the North's Korean Workers' Party department
director on inter-Korean relations, and try to narrow differences on possible
agenda, according to the sources. Further contact was reportedly made by
different officials a month later.
The two sides allegedly failed to reach any agreement, but the contacts were a
sharp departure from Lee's early months in office during which cross-border
relations dipped to the lowest level in a decade.
"If this past year was a stage where the two sides weighed the possibility, in
the new year, chances are they will lean closer to a summit. Next year, there is
a far higher possibility of a summit taking place than this year," Rhee said.
North Korea's Kim has held summits with the South twice; the first in 2000 with
then-President Kim Dae-jung and the other in 2007 with then-President Roh
Moo-hyun. The summits were both held in Pyongyang and the North Korean leader has
yet to pay a promised reciprocal visit to the South.
Against such a backdrop, there has been a consensus among South Koreans that the
next inter-Korean summit, if held, should take place in the South.
But President Lee displayed flexibility towards the summit venue, saying
recently,"I have no political reason to hold a summit, but I can meet him at
anytime if it will help convince North Korea to give up its nuclear programs. I
think it does not have to be held within the territory of South Korea if such a
summit will help resolve such issues."
"Because the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is such an important issue,
I plan to meet (Kim) at anytime and anywhere, as long as our objective of such a
summit will be achieved."
North Korea also has internal needs to improve relations with South Korea as well
as the United States, as it strives to resuscitate its frail economy and readies
itself for a new young leader, watchers say.
A surprise currency redenomination in late November will require more outside
assistance to make sure money and commodities flow well. Pyongyang has declared
that the currency reform, which eliminated two zeros from the old denominations,
will curb inflation and bring the economy back under state control.
The year 2010 will also be a critical point for Kim Jong-il in completing his
power transfer to his third and youngest son, Kim Jong-un, said Yoo Ho-yeol, a
North Korean studies professor at Korea University in Seoul. In early 2009, North
Korea revised its Constitution to empower its National Defense Commission, seen
as a possible bridge for power succession. Its long-range rocket and nuclear
tests were also believed to be partly aimed at strengthening internal stability
ahead of the succession.
Being on better terms with the international community will bolster the
legitimacy of any incoming new leadership, Yoo noted.
"In the new year, North Korea will concentrate on maintaining the stability of
its regime and improving its international relations, rather than try a military
provocation," he said.
South Korea has been expanding its small-scale economic assistance to North
Korea, although massive rice and fertilizer aid and tourism projects still remain
suspended. Medication to help prevent an outbreak of the H1N1 flu virus were
provided, and new cash support was taking shape to improve the nutrition of
children and mothers.
In another sign of improving relations, the Koreas recently conducted a joint
survey in China and Vietnam to find benchmark models for their shared factory
park.
Still, watchers are unanimous that any major inter-Korean progress is possible
only when there is progress in Pyongyang's relations with Washington. In early
December, North Korea and the U.S. had their first official talks since the
inauguration of U.S. President Barack Obama in January, and additional meetings
are expected in the coming months.
Obama's special envoy to the talks, Stephen Bosworth, said both sides reached a
"common understanding" on the need to resume a multilateral forum on North
Korea's nuclear program, although no date has been set yet.
"The real key is to what degree the North Korea-U.S. relations will be improved,"
Rhee, the former vice unification minister, said.
Normalizing relations with Washington is virtually the only gateway for Pyongyang
to join international economic activity and for Kim Jong-il to leave a better
nation to his son, he noted.
hkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
SEOUL, Dec. 29 (Yonhap) -- The outlook for inter-Korean relations in 2010 appears to be slightly brighter than in 2009, with expectations rising for a third inter-Korean summit and the North's dialogue with the U.S. and other regional powers, watchers and officials in Seoul said.
As seen in the South's recent shipment of anti-viral drug Tamiflu to the North,
signs of cross-border exchanges and cooperation will likely be more evident next
year, they forecast.
President Lee Myung-bak's recent declaration that he is ready to meet North
Korean leader Kim Jong-il "anytime and anywhere" to resolve the protracted
nuclear standoff on the divided peninsula and tackle other thorny issues has
triggered speculation on the possibility of a third inter-Korean summit in 2010.
The answer will eventually hinge on the outcome of North Korea-U.S. dialogue that
has always had reverberations for inter-Korean diplomacy, but experts see a slew
of other factors that may brighten chances for a summit.
Confronted with local elections in June 2010, nearly the midpoint of his
five-year term, President Lee may seriously weigh the effects of a summit with
North Korean leader Kim, a political feat that instantly raised the standings of
his two liberal predecessors, said Rhee Bong-jo, who was vice unification
minister from 2004 to 2006.
"A summit with North Korea will delay lame-duck status for President Lee," said
Rhee, who currently works for a state-run think tank, the Korea Institute for
National Unification. "With such political demand at home and the international
climate moving in a favorable way, the president has come to a point where he
might seriously consider an inter-Korean summit."
Cheong Wa Dae, the presidential office, denies any talks are under way to arrange
a summit, but the Koreas did begin to gauge their summit possibility during the
second half of this past year, according to multiple government sources
well-versed in inter-Korean affairs.
The North Korean leader proposed a summit through his envoys in August. In
October, Labor Minister Yim Tae-hee, a close confidant to Lee, secretly flew to
Singapore to meet with Kim Yang-gon, the North's Korean Workers' Party department
director on inter-Korean relations, and try to narrow differences on possible
agenda, according to the sources. Further contact was reportedly made by
different officials a month later.
The two sides allegedly failed to reach any agreement, but the contacts were a
sharp departure from Lee's early months in office during which cross-border
relations dipped to the lowest level in a decade.
"If this past year was a stage where the two sides weighed the possibility, in
the new year, chances are they will lean closer to a summit. Next year, there is
a far higher possibility of a summit taking place than this year," Rhee said.
North Korea's Kim has held summits with the South twice; the first in 2000 with
then-President Kim Dae-jung and the other in 2007 with then-President Roh
Moo-hyun. The summits were both held in Pyongyang and the North Korean leader has
yet to pay a promised reciprocal visit to the South.
Against such a backdrop, there has been a consensus among South Koreans that the
next inter-Korean summit, if held, should take place in the South.
But President Lee displayed flexibility towards the summit venue, saying
recently,"I have no political reason to hold a summit, but I can meet him at
anytime if it will help convince North Korea to give up its nuclear programs. I
think it does not have to be held within the territory of South Korea if such a
summit will help resolve such issues."
"Because the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is such an important issue,
I plan to meet (Kim) at anytime and anywhere, as long as our objective of such a
summit will be achieved."
North Korea also has internal needs to improve relations with South Korea as well
as the United States, as it strives to resuscitate its frail economy and readies
itself for a new young leader, watchers say.
A surprise currency redenomination in late November will require more outside
assistance to make sure money and commodities flow well. Pyongyang has declared
that the currency reform, which eliminated two zeros from the old denominations,
will curb inflation and bring the economy back under state control.
The year 2010 will also be a critical point for Kim Jong-il in completing his
power transfer to his third and youngest son, Kim Jong-un, said Yoo Ho-yeol, a
North Korean studies professor at Korea University in Seoul. In early 2009, North
Korea revised its Constitution to empower its National Defense Commission, seen
as a possible bridge for power succession. Its long-range rocket and nuclear
tests were also believed to be partly aimed at strengthening internal stability
ahead of the succession.
Being on better terms with the international community will bolster the
legitimacy of any incoming new leadership, Yoo noted.
"In the new year, North Korea will concentrate on maintaining the stability of
its regime and improving its international relations, rather than try a military
provocation," he said.
South Korea has been expanding its small-scale economic assistance to North
Korea, although massive rice and fertilizer aid and tourism projects still remain
suspended. Medication to help prevent an outbreak of the H1N1 flu virus were
provided, and new cash support was taking shape to improve the nutrition of
children and mothers.
In another sign of improving relations, the Koreas recently conducted a joint
survey in China and Vietnam to find benchmark models for their shared factory
park.
Still, watchers are unanimous that any major inter-Korean progress is possible
only when there is progress in Pyongyang's relations with Washington. In early
December, North Korea and the U.S. had their first official talks since the
inauguration of U.S. President Barack Obama in January, and additional meetings
are expected in the coming months.
Obama's special envoy to the talks, Stephen Bosworth, said both sides reached a
"common understanding" on the need to resume a multilateral forum on North
Korea's nuclear program, although no date has been set yet.
"The real key is to what degree the North Korea-U.S. relations will be improved,"
Rhee, the former vice unification minister, said.
Normalizing relations with Washington is virtually the only gateway for Pyongyang
to join international economic activity and for Kim Jong-il to leave a better
nation to his son, he noted.
hkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
