(EDITORIAL from the Korea Herald on Jan. 5)

Sudden olive branch

Economic recovery will top the Republic of Korea's national agenda in the new
year, which will also include the complicated Sejong City plan, the four-river
development and the debate on constitutional amendment to change the presidential
tenure and government structure. These items are already too heavy but there is a
very likely addition involving inter-Korean relations.

Pyongyang's New Year message was devoted largely to assurances of economic
advancement to achieve a powerful, prosperous state by 2012, but shared several
paragraphs for external affairs. The mentioning on relations with the United
States and South Korea was made in surprisingly moderate language devoid of the
usual propaganda harangues.
"An end to hostile relations" was the core message to Washington. Regarding South
Korea, the policy keynote said the North's "position of seeking to improve
relations with the South is firm and unchangeable." Just a year ago, the message
in the form of a joint editorial of three official dailies, had described Seoul's
conservative government as a "group of lunatics" bent on confrontation with the
North.
Already the talk of a possible inter-Korean summit is heard from some corners of
Seoul's political community. Even officials of the Ministry of Unification are
adding to the speculation by stating that a "grand bargain" with the North is one
of its policy goals for the New Year. President Lee Myung-bak used the term in
his call for simultaneous settlement of the North's denuclearization and
diplomatic normalization with Pyongyang.
More than a coincidence, the North Korean message manifested its dual pursuit for
"a stable peace regime and denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula through
dialogue and negotiation." Pyongyang's policy keynote unequivocally stated its
intent to deal with the two issues in a package through the just-started dialogue
with the United States and the existing six-party talks.
If we are to give due credence to Pyongyang's New Year message this time, despite
the record of the North's state-level deceptiveness, it could indicate the regime
was becoming more realistic in the face of continuing economic adversity.
Washington's dispatch of a special envoy to Pyongyang late last year carrying a
message from President Obama offered it a long-awaited opportunity to expedite a
normalization process through direct dialogue.
Yet, it could also signify the North's self-confidence as a nuclear power, having
"successfully" staged nuclear tests twice at a three-year interval. Kim Jong-il's
olive branches, held out to Washington and Seoul, no doubt reflected his
country's dire economic situation, which led to the recent disorderly currency
reform. But he must have reassured himself that he had accumulated enough
bargaining chips, perhaps counting on Washington's fear of arms proliferation to
terror groups.
In Seoul, the administration, from President Lee on down, is ushering in the new
year with certain signs of euphoria from a faster-than-expected recovery from the
global economic crisis. The conservative ruling force must also be entering its
third year in power encouraged by the visible receding of the leftist backlash on
the political and social fronts. This perceived position of strength must be
pushing them toward reopening dialogue with the North.
Inter-Korean dialogue is necessary for peace on the peninsula. But cooperation
with the North from 2010 should be different from the mode of the earlier round
of exchanges under the previous progressive administrations, which was
characterized by the receiver's initiative rather than the giver's. Any form and
amount of economic aid should be linked to assured progress in the
denuclearization process along the two tracks of the six-way talks and the direct
U.S.-North dialogue.
(END)

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