N. Korean defectors in China decreasing: U.S. expert

By Sam Kim
SEOUL, Jan. 7 (Yonhap) -- The number of North Korean defectors hiding in China is
estimated to have shrunken to almost one tenth the level seen about a decade ago,
a U.S. statistician said Thursday.
The number topped as high as 130,000 in 1998 after famine struck North Korea but
dropped to 16,000 in 2007, said Dr. Courtland Robinson at Johns Hopkins
University Bloomberg School of Public Health.
"About a decade ago, people were literally starving to death and fleeing to
China," Robinson said in an interview on the sidelines of a conference on North
Korean defectors and their health in Seoul.
Robinson, who has conducted research in Chinese areas bordering North Korea, said
he tapped local residents in China as informants to estimate the number of
defectors living in their towns. Using demographic methods to come up with what
he called "plausible" estimates of North Korean defectors, Robinson said the 2007
figure could come down to as low as 6,000 as of 2007 if the strictest method is
applied.
"It's a combination of things that has contributed to the decrease. Tightened
border security on both sides is one," Robinson said. "Defectors have also
evolved in terms of their understanding of how difficult it is to live in China."
China reportedly stepped up its crackdown on North Korean defectors ahead of its
hosting of the Summer Olympics in August 2008. Under a treaty forged in 1998,
China is believed to arrest and repatriate North Korean defectors even though
defection is considered a capital crime in their impoverished homeland.
Robinson said defectors have also apparently accelerated the pace at which they
"move on through China," heading to countries where they find it safer to live or
easier to go to South Korea.
Over 16,000 North Koreans have come to South Korea since the 1950-53 Korean War
that ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty. The annual number of defectors
is increasing year by year and the Unification Ministry expects the accumulated
figure to top 20,000 this year.
samkim@yna.co.kr
(END)