ID :
99284
Mon, 01/11/2010 - 08:26
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https://www.oananews.org//node/99284
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N. Korea unlikely to dismantle nuclear arsenal through 6-way talks: scholar
By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, Jan. 10 (Yonhap) -- North Korea will not likely dismantle its nuclear arsenal despite upbeat sentiment after the visit to Pyongyang by U.S. President Barack Obama's special envoy last month to lure the North back to multilateral nuclear talks, a scholar said Sunday.
"It may be unrealistic to speculate that the DPRK would go so far as to move
toward an agreement to give up its nuclear program in order to obtain removal of
the sanctions imposed under UN Resolution 1874, but their removal was reportedly
avidly sought by DPRK officials during the visit of Stephen Bosworth, U.S.
special representative for North Korea policy, in early December," James Lister,
vice president of the Korea Economic Institute, said in a contribution to the
KEI's Web site.
DPRK stands for the North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's
Republic of Korea.
In the first high-level bilateral contact since Obama's inauguration last
January, Bosworth failed to get the North's commitment to reopen the talks,
although he said Pyongyang has "indicated they would like to resume the six-party
process."
U.S. officials have said they are ready to have another high-level, face-to-face
meeting with the North to pave the way for reopening the multilateral nuclear
talks, but added the U.S. will continue sanctions on the North until it takes
substantial steps toward its denuclearization.
The sanctions are being imposed under U.N. Security Council resolutions adopted
after North Korea's second nuclear test since one in 2006 and missile tests early
last year that resulted in the North boycotting the six-party talks on ending its
nuclear weapons programs. The talks involve the two Koreas, the U.S., China,
Japan and Russia.
Faced with tough international sanctions, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is
reportedly planning a rare visit to China to ask for economic aid from the
country's staunchest communist ally.
The reclusive North Korean leader, who apparently suffered a stroke in the summer
of 2008, is also believed to be trying to help his youngest son, Jong-eun,
consolidate power as heir apparent and address ways to quell skyrocketing
inflation and tighten market control after the redenomination of the North Korean
currency late last year.
Lister was pessimistic about the North's economic prospects after the redomination.
"Few western observers would predict success for this shift of course of the
DPRK's economic policy," he said. "In the short run, success may be possible if
it is defined as shrinking the relative size of the market economy compared to
the planned economy."
Redenomination alone will not be enough to revitalize the North's economy that is
suffering from chronic food shortages and lack of domestic and foreign
investment, the scholar said.
"Improvement of living standards may be possible if harvests hold up, assistance
from China increases, and revenue from Gaeseong and other industrial parks can be
sharply expanded," he said. "Long-term growth requires rational investment and
productive use of labor. There is no reason to expect that either attribute will
emerge in a recentralized economy, particularly after so many have tasted the
forbidden fruit."
hdh@yna.co.kr
(END)
WASHINGTON, Jan. 10 (Yonhap) -- North Korea will not likely dismantle its nuclear arsenal despite upbeat sentiment after the visit to Pyongyang by U.S. President Barack Obama's special envoy last month to lure the North back to multilateral nuclear talks, a scholar said Sunday.
"It may be unrealistic to speculate that the DPRK would go so far as to move
toward an agreement to give up its nuclear program in order to obtain removal of
the sanctions imposed under UN Resolution 1874, but their removal was reportedly
avidly sought by DPRK officials during the visit of Stephen Bosworth, U.S.
special representative for North Korea policy, in early December," James Lister,
vice president of the Korea Economic Institute, said in a contribution to the
KEI's Web site.
DPRK stands for the North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's
Republic of Korea.
In the first high-level bilateral contact since Obama's inauguration last
January, Bosworth failed to get the North's commitment to reopen the talks,
although he said Pyongyang has "indicated they would like to resume the six-party
process."
U.S. officials have said they are ready to have another high-level, face-to-face
meeting with the North to pave the way for reopening the multilateral nuclear
talks, but added the U.S. will continue sanctions on the North until it takes
substantial steps toward its denuclearization.
The sanctions are being imposed under U.N. Security Council resolutions adopted
after North Korea's second nuclear test since one in 2006 and missile tests early
last year that resulted in the North boycotting the six-party talks on ending its
nuclear weapons programs. The talks involve the two Koreas, the U.S., China,
Japan and Russia.
Faced with tough international sanctions, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is
reportedly planning a rare visit to China to ask for economic aid from the
country's staunchest communist ally.
The reclusive North Korean leader, who apparently suffered a stroke in the summer
of 2008, is also believed to be trying to help his youngest son, Jong-eun,
consolidate power as heir apparent and address ways to quell skyrocketing
inflation and tighten market control after the redenomination of the North Korean
currency late last year.
Lister was pessimistic about the North's economic prospects after the redomination.
"Few western observers would predict success for this shift of course of the
DPRK's economic policy," he said. "In the short run, success may be possible if
it is defined as shrinking the relative size of the market economy compared to
the planned economy."
Redenomination alone will not be enough to revitalize the North's economy that is
suffering from chronic food shortages and lack of domestic and foreign
investment, the scholar said.
"Improvement of living standards may be possible if harvests hold up, assistance
from China increases, and revenue from Gaeseong and other industrial parks can be
sharply expanded," he said. "Long-term growth requires rational investment and
productive use of labor. There is no reason to expect that either attribute will
emerge in a recentralized economy, particularly after so many have tasted the
forbidden fruit."
hdh@yna.co.kr
(END)
